With four games remaining, the Baltimore Ravens have a 36 percent chance of making the playoffs according to simulations by ESPN.
The Ravens' chances obviously would be better if they had held on to beat the San Diego Chargers. That fourth-quarter collapse has made Sunday's game at the Miami Dolphins a "must-win" in some players' eyes.
The Ravens (7-5) can't afford to lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Chargers (8-4) and Dolphins (7-5), both of whom currently hold the AFC wild-card spots. The Ravens also can't afford another loss in the AFC considering their conference record (3-5) is worse than the Chargers and Dolphins, both of whom are 6-3 in the AFC.
"It's going to be very competitive (and) down to the wire to make the playoffs, to win the division, and we are in the thick of it," coach John Harbaugh said. "We have a huge game down in Miami this week. There will a lot on the line and they'll be ready and they're good. We'll have a great opportunity to make a move."
According to ESPN simulations, here are the chances of making the playoffs for some of the 7-5 teams:
Kansas City Chiefs: 46 percent
Dolphins: 43 percent
Ravens: 36 percent
Pittsburgh Steelers: 20 percent
Buffalo Bills: 14 percent
In the AFC North, the Ravens are 1.5 games behind the first-place Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) and are in second place because they hold a common games tiebreaker over the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) and Cleveland Browns (7-5). On Sunday, the Steelers play at the Bengals and the Browns play host to the Indianapolis Colts (8-4).