While four Big 12 teams are busy chasing College Football Playoff aspirations, five others are battling just to reach a bowl game. Here's where each of those teams stand with four weeks to go, along with their FPI projected odds of winning each of their remaining games.
West Virginia (4-4)
Remaining: vs. Texas (76%), @ Kansas (97%), vs. Iowa State (86%), @ Kansas State (57%)
Dana Holgorsen's squad should be in the best shape of any Big 12 team on the bowl bubble, because they have a real shot at finishing the regular season on a five-game winning streak. That's how favorably this schedule sets up, especially if West Virginia can knock off the Longhorns at home Saturday. The Mountaineers have run out of gas and gone 1-3 in the month of November every year since joining the conference. This year, it's hard to see them being any worse than 3-1 exiting the month.
Texas Tech (5-5)
Remaining: vs. Kansas State (64%), @ Texas (48%)
The Red Raiders just want six at this point. Doesn't matter how they get them. They're on a three-game slide after a 5-2 start. This is the week to get it done, in front of a home crowd against a K-State team that's still winless in conference play. That's easier said than done -- Bill Snyder hasn't lost a game to Tech since 2009 -- but it's time to end a brutal streak: Against Big 12 teams not named Kansas or Iowa State, Tech has lost 17 straight games under Kliff Kingsbury.
Kansas State (3-5)
Remaining: @ Texas Tech (36%), vs. Iowa State (75%), @ Kansas (94%), vs. West Virginia (43%)
The Wildcats haven't won a game since Sept. 19 yet they still have a shot at sneaking into a bowl game. One advantage to keep in mind this weekend: KSU had nine days to rest up and prepare for Texas Tech. Even if the quest for six wins does come down to the Dec. 5 finale in Manhattan, it'd be pretty hard to bet against Snyder in that situation, right?
Remaining: @ West Virginia (24%), vs. Texas Tech (52%), @ Baylor (7%)
Texas would be in fine shape today if not for that road loss to Iowa State. Taking that 'L' essentially left this team with one option for bowling: Win these next two. We'll see if that desperation shows up in their play Saturday morning in Morgantown. The Thanksgiving night showdown with Tech could be a real toss-up. The Baylor game could be a bloodbath, especially if the Bears are trying to clinch a Big 12 title and impress the College Football Playoff committee.
Iowa State (3-6)
Remaining: vs. Oklahoma State (14%), @ Kansas State (25%), @ West Virginia (14%)
So the Cyclones still have a chance of going bowling. All they have to do is win out, first by pulling off an upset of No. 8 Oklahoma State and then winning back-to-back road tests against team that will be fighting hard to clinch their own bowl spots. Lose any of these three and Iowa State is staying home for the holidays for a third straight season. ISU's odds of winning out? Less than 1 percent, according to FPI. So we're saying there's a chance.