Big 12 predictions: Week 4

I believe it's the Germans who would refer to my picks to start the season as "en fuego." I have yet to correctly pick a game that's taken place in Lawrence, Kan. I have yet to incorrectly pick a game that's taken place anywhere else. Something's got to give pretty soon, before I start yelling "Kobe!" and flick my wrist before I press the "Publish" button.

I'm headed to Austin for the first time this season to see the Longhorns take on UCLA.

Let's get to the picks.

Last week: 10-0 (1.000)

Overall: 32-2 (.941)

Kansas State 31, UCF 20: UCF's run defense has been decent, but it hasn't seen anybody like Daniel Thomas yet. Like I've said before, the list of teams who can stop him is short, and UCF isn't on it. Line the D-Train up on the tracks for another buck-fifty.

Missouri 38, Miami (Ohio) 14: The offense isn't exactly rolling, but the Tigers' much-improved defense -- specifically the secondary -- has helped the Tigers stay 3-0. We won't know just how good the defense is after this game, but Missouri will be hoping to avoid the dramatics of last week.

No. 7 Texas 34, UCLA 7: Come back later today for a video of me explaining the pick for my Game of the Week.

No. 8 Oklahoma 31, Cincinnati 14: I got to see a little bit of Cincy's opener against Fresno State and watched all of their loss to NC State last week. This is not a team that can beat Oklahoma anywhere right now, mainly because of the defense. Only turnovers can put this game in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Iowa State 27, Northern Iowa 17: Austen Arnaud's health is a little bit of a concern after bruising his shoulder, but backup Jerome Tiller is more than capable. Either way, the Cyclones take advantage of the second game this season in which they've been favored.

No. 6 Nebraska 56, South Dakota State 10: I have no doubt that Nebraska fans will pay the required $39.95 to watch this game. It will be over after the first quarter. They will keep watching.

Kansas 28, New Mexico State 14: There's no reason Kansas should lose this game. The Jayhawks seem like they've found an offensive identity, and by most accounts, the Aggies, despite having college sports' most terrifying logo, are a terrible team. Kansas takes care of business. (P.S. The new logo is a big step up from the old one.)

Baylor 28, Rice 13: Baylor sounds angry and ready to play a team that's not in the top five. The Bears have to play well to win, and do, finishing off a perfect 8-0 week in the Big 12.

Idle: Colorado, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech