Clinching scenarios for each Power 5 conference

With only two weeks left in the regular season, every Power 5 division and conference race is open except one: Alabama has already clinched the SEC West. Here is a look at conference scenarios remaining for everyone else.


The scenarios are simple in the ACC. Clemson clinches the Atlantic Division with a win over Wake Forest on Saturday. A loss gives the Atlantic Division to Louisville, which has already wrapped up conference play with a 7-1 record.

Virginia Tech clinches the Coastal Division with a win over Virginia on Nov. 26. North Carolina clinches the Coastal Division with a Virginia Tech loss and win over NC State on Nov. 25. If they both lose, Virginia Tech wins the Coastal.

Big 12

Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oklahoma State are all alive in the Big 12 race. Among the three, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State control their path to the conference title.

Oklahoma is the favorite, with a 61 percent chance to win the Big 12. Its game at West Virginia on Saturday will have major ramifications in the conference race. If the Sooners beat the Mountaineers and then Oklahoma State, Oklahoma is the conference champion.

If the Cowboys win their final two games against TCU and Oklahoma, they would be the Big 12 champions. Currently, ESPN Stats & Information gives Oklahoma State a 15 percent chance to win the conference.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma on Saturday, then the Mountaineers become the favorites. But they would need to win their remaining games against Iowa State and Baylor and have Oklahoma State lose to Oklahoma on the last day of the regular season to win the Big 12.

Big Ten

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State are alive for the East division title, with the regular-season finale between the rival Wolverines and Buckeyes perhaps holding the biggest key. Penn State is now the favorite to win the division (46 percent, per ESPN Stats & Information), but Michigan is the team that controls its chances of winning the East.

If the Wolverines win out against Indiana and at Ohio State, they win the East.

Penn State needs to win at Rutgers and against Michigan State and have Michigan lose, to win the East.

Even if Ohio State wins out over Michigan State and Michigan, the Buckeyes need Penn State to lose to win the East.

Wisconsin and Nebraska are tied atop the Big Ten West with 5-2 records. If both teams finish tied, Wisconsin wins the West thanks to its 23-17 victory over the Cornhuskers. Nebraska needs to beat Maryland and Iowa, then hope Wisconsin loses to either Purdue or Minnesota, to win the West. Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern (each at 4-3) have slim hopes and would need a near-miracle to win the West.


The Pac-12 South is the only Power 5 division that has three teams (Colorado, USC and Utah) with at least a 20 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Colorado leads the division at 6-1, but the Buffaloes have a tough stretch to end the season against Washington State and Utah. If the Buffaloes win out, they win the South.

If Utah wins out over Oregon and Colorado, the Utes win the South.

USC only has UCLA remaining on its conference slate. If the Trojans beat their rival, they need both Colorado and Utah to lose to win the division.

If the three teams end up tied atop the division, then the winner would be chosen via a tiebreaker that would depend on how the final two weeks play out.

The North is a more clear-cut. Washington and Washington State are the favorites. To put it most simply, the team that wins out wins the division -- they play each other Nov. 25 in Pullman, Washington. But Washington State can also clinch the North this Saturday with a victory over Colorado and a Washington loss to Arizona State.


The SEC East will come down to Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators win at LSU on Saturday, they win the East. If they lose and Tennessee loses, the Gators win the East. Tennessee wins the East with a Florida loss and wins over Missouri and Vanderbilt in the final two weeks.