BALTIMORE -- So what did losing the rubber game of their three-game set to the Tampa Bay Rays do to the Red Sox playoff chances?
According to one measurement, it dropped them 7 percent, to where they now have just over a 10 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason.
That’s according to the postseason odds posted by Clay Davenport at Baseballprospectus.com. Davenport arrives at his calculations by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times.
Davenport currently projects the Rays to win the division with 100 wins, the Yankees to finish second with 96, and the Red Sox to finish third with 91. He gives the Sox a 10.87 percent chance of making the playoffs -- a 1.3 percent chance to win the division, a 9.5 percent chance of winning the wild card.
Want to know more about the methodology, go here.