Daily fantasy baseball: Risk factors for Wednesday, May 20

Since value is absolutely a function of fantasy points per cap charge, the right sorts of predictive models will give you the edge in daily fantasy. I have written algorithms that factor in up to eight years of MLB data, and analyzed seven different ways to create one-day performance projections.

Every day the models “get smarter” as they include the most up-to-date stats. My secret sauce is the risk analysis that weighs upside and downside and creates a volatility index, this way you can get a full picture of what a player (and/or your full roster of players) could reasonably be expected to produce.