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Prediction: Chiefs will beat Bills

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The Kansas City Chiefs have thrived this season on third down. Offensively, they convert 52 percent of the time, second-best in the league. Opponents convert just 33 percent of the time, third-best in the league.

As a result, the Chiefs have played four games this season in which they’ve been able to run many more plays than their opponent. Sunday's meeting with the Bills in Buffalo could be another one of those games.

The Bills, while solid on third-down defensively (36 percent), don’t move the chains efficiently on offense (36 percent). Throw in the fact the Bills haven’t run the ball effectively since losing C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to injury and Buffalo might not get many cracks at the Chiefs’ defense.

When they do, they’ll be throwing against the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense and trying to protect against the NFL leader in sacks, Justin Houston. The Chiefs also lead the league in sacks per opponent pass attempt. So if the Bills can crack the code and get some big pass plays against the Chiefs where other teams have failed, they have a good shot at victory. Otherwise, look for the Chiefs to do just enough offensively to hold off the Bills.

My prediction: Chiefs 20, Bills 17