I saved a bonus question from this weekend's mailbag about how the New Orleans Saints will likely split touches between running backs Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller and Khiry Robinson, because I wanted to dig deeper into the answer:
@MikeTriplett Barring injury, how do carries get split between Ingram/Spiller/Khiry? 50/35/15?
— Joshua Benton (@jbenton) April 10, 2015To help make an educated guess, I decided to break down how the Saints have split touches between running backs throughout their history under coach Sean Payton. Unfortunately, there's no perfect comparison for this season's trio. But there are a lot of comps to pick and choose from.
The closest match is 2009, when the Saints had Pierre Thomas (186 touches), Mike Bell (176 touches) and Reggie Bush (117 touches).
Spiller will play an all-purpose role, similar to Bush. But that year, the Saints limited Bush's touches to keep him healthy. So I expect a little higher workload for Spiller -- something similar to how the Saints used Darren Sproles during his three seasons in New Orleans (173 touches in 16 games played in 2011, 123 in 13 games in 2012 and 124 in 15 games in 2013).
Also, I expect Ingram to be more of a No. 1 back and Robinson more of a backup, instead of the even split the Saints used with Thomas and Bell in 2009. Ingram's 255 touches last year were the second most by any running back in the Payton era (behind only Deuce McAllister's 274 in 2006) -- and Ingram did that in just 13 games played.
Combine that with the four-year, $16 million contract New Orleans gave Ingram this offseason, and I don't expect a dramatic drop-off in his workload in 2015. However, the Saints do have the luxury of keeping Ingram fresh if everyone stays healthy.
So my final guess isn't too far off from the 50-35-15 split suggested in the question. Assuming everyone stays healthy, I'll go with something like:
Ingram 240 touches (950-1,000 rushing yards)
Spiller 150 touches (400-plus rushing yards, 500-plus receiving yards)
Robinson 90 touches (350-400 rushing yards)
Here's a look back at how running backs have split touches in the Payton era (minimum of 25 touches):
2014
Mark Ingram 255 (226 rushes, 29 receptions)
Pierre Thomas 90 (45 rushes, 45 receptions)
Khiry Robinson 84 (76 rushes, 8 receptions)
Travaris Cadet 48 (10 rushes, 38 receptions)
2013
Pierre Thomas 224 (147 rushes, 77 receptions)
Darren Sproles 124 (53 rushes, 71 receptions)
Mark Ingram 85 (78 rushes, 7 receptions)
Khiry Robinson 54 (54 rushes)
2012
Mark Ingram 162 (156 rushes, 6 receptions)
Pierre Thomas 144 (105 rushes, 39 receptions)
Darren Sproles 123 (48 rushes, 75 receptions)
Chris Ivory 42 (40 rushes, 2 receptions)
2011
Darren Sproles 173 (87 rushes, 86 receptions)
Pierre Thomas 160 (110 rushes, 50 receptions)
Mark Ingram 133 (122 rushes, 11 receptions)
Chris Ivory 79 (79 rushes)
2010
Chris Ivory 138 (137 rushes, 1 reception)
Pierre Thomas 112 (83 rushes, 29 receptions)
Reggie Bush 70 (36 rushes, 34 receptions)
Ladell Betts 68 (45 rushes, 23 receptions)
Julius Jones 65 (48 rushes, 17 receptions)
2009
Pierre Thomas 186 (147 rushes, 39 receptions)
Mike Bell 176 (172 rushes, 4 receptions)
Reggie Bush 117 (70 rushes, 47 receptions)
Lynell Hamilton 40 (35 rushes, 5 receptions)
2008
Pierre Thomas 160 (129 rushes, 31 receptions)
Reggie Bush 158 (106 rushes, 52 receptions)
Deuce McAllister 125 (107 rushes, 18 receptions)
2007
Reggie Bush 230 (157 rushes, 73 receptions)
Aaron Stecker 151 (115 rushes, 36 receptions)
Pierre Thomas 69 (52 rushes, 17 receptions)
Deuce McAllister 28 (24 rushes, 4 receptions)
2006
Deuce McAllister 274 (244 rushes, 30 receptions)
Reggie Bush 243 (155 rushes, 88 receptions)