Though the Mets are only 5½ games out of the second wild-card spot, their chances of making the playoffs, according to Numberfire, is estimated at 0.1 percent.
But Jacob deGrom's chances of winning the NL Rookie of the Year are considerably better.
New York Mets
DeGrom’s eight scoreless innings on Tuesday gave him 22 straight innings without allowing an earned run. The Elias Sports Bureau notes that he’s one of three pitchers in Mets history to have an ERA below 3.00 through the first 20 starts of his debut season. The other two: Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden.
Most impressive for deGrom on this night against what was admittedly a weak Rockies lineup was that he was much more efficient than he’s been in most starts. He got through eight innings in 100 pitches, a 12.5 pitch-per-inning rate that was far better than his 16.7 rate in his previous two starts.
DeGrom’s 75 percent strike rate was the best single-game mark in his career. This was also only his second start that was walk-free (the other came against the free-swinging Braves).
DeGrom’s average fastball velocity has held steady in each of his past three starts (93.8, 93.7 and 93.8 mph respectively), right in line with his 93.5 season average.
The changeup also was a very effective pitch. He threw 12 of 15 for strikes, netting five outs without yielding a baserunner. The five outs were one shy of the most he’s recorded with the pitch in any start.
Since starting 0-4, deGrom is 8-2 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts. Since June 21, his ERA ranks third-best in baseball, behind only Clayton Kershaw’s 1.19 and Corey Kluber’s 1.61. His .535 opponents’ OPS trails only Kershaw’s .464 and Garrett Richards’ .510.
Not only did the scoreboard watching go right for the Mets from the perspective of the wild-card standings (yes, go ahead and laugh), it went right for deGrom from a statistical perspective as well.
DeGrom’s chief competition in the Rookie of the Year race, Billy Hamilton, finished Tuesday 0-for-4 for the Reds, dropping his batting average to .260.
Unlike the wild card, this will be a neck-and-neck race probably right down to the final day. DeGrom’s pitching entering the day was worth 2.5 Wins Above Replacement. Hamilton was a hair behind him. His offensive and defensive performance has been worth 2.4 WAR.