What if the Colts took Robert Griffin III?

Lots of things happen in the vast expanse of time that precedes the NFL draft. Perceptions shift. Conventional wisdom grows old and boring, and storylines arise seemingly for the sole purpose of shaking things up. That could be what's happening right now with the narrative involving the top two picks in next month's draft, but nothing's certain until the picks are made, so it's worth pondering what-ifs.

The Washington Redskins are at Baylor today for Robert Griffin III's pro day. Tomorrow, they will be at Stanford for Andrew Luck's. It is widely assumed, and has been for some time, that the Colts will take Luck with the first pick in the draft and the Redskins will take Griffin with the second. I believe there is a better than 95 percent chance that this is what happens, and that you're pretty safe if you're a Redskins fan and you want to order your Griffin jersey.

But Merril Hoge went on "SportsCenter" this morning and ticked off the reasons he prefers Griffin to Luck. And KC Joyner has 10 reasons he thinks Griffin could still end up being the No. 1 pick instead of Luck, including "Something to Prove:"

One of the keys to Cam Newton's success last year was his incredible motivation level to prove all of the naysayers who thought he wasn't worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick wrong. If Griffin III was to be taken first overall, he would encounter just as many naysayers. Given his mental makeup, it is easy to see him being equally motivated to prove to the world that Indianapolis made the right choice in selecting him.

KC's story is worth a read, and once you read it you might end up convinced that it makes sense. But as even KC admits, the Colts will almost certainly take Luck. If they don't, Redskins fans will be in shock. And many Redskins fans have been asking me the question in this post's headline as though it would be some sort of problem if the Colts took Griffin and left them with Luck.

It would not. Luck has been hailed for more than two years now as, in almost everyone's opinion, the best quarterback prospect to come out of college in years. If for some reason Indianapolis decides it likes Griffin better, the Redskins will be surprised, but they'll be thrilled to pick Luck and build around him for years to come. The whole point of the trade they made to move up to the No. 2 spot in the draft was that there are two franchise quarterback prospects in this year's draft and sitting at No. 2 means you're sure to get one of them. That's why the Redskins are so fired up about their pro day trips -- and why the brain trust only has to take two of them. They're in a can't-lose position.