The Pac-12 enters Week 11 with six teams already bowl-eligible and two more on the five-win bubble.
Arizona State and Washington are not among those teams. With matching 4-5 records, the Sun Devils and Huskies must win at least two of their final three to guarantee a spot in the postseason. That makes Saturday’s showdown between the schools in Tempe, Arizona, critical for their bowl hopes. The winner will need just one victory in their final two games; the loser will have to run the table.
Arizona State has gone to four consecutive bowl games – including all three years under Todd Graham. Washington is riding a five-year streak of postseason appearances that included a spot in the Cactus Bowl last year in Chris Petersen’s first season.
“Frustrated” was a common theme this week among both coaches. Arizona State, which is in the middle of a three-game skid, has coughed up fourth-quarter leads in all three games. Washington, a team some might say has already exceeded expectations, has dropped three of its last four.
“I think everybody is frustrated because they are working so hard,” Petersen said. “Everybody understands at the end of the day what this whole thing is all about. We are working hard and we are playing better … if you can stick to that process, eventually you are going to get some more wins.”
Meanwhile, Graham called his team’s slide “head-scratching.”
“The difference between being 7-2 in first place and 4-5 and out of the race has been a very small, thin line,” Graham said. “I think we won 27 when leading at halftime and lost two in the last three weeks.”
It should be noted, however, that with 80 teams going to 41 bowl games (including the College Football Playoff National Championship) and a lot of parity across college football, there is early speculation that one or multiple 5-7 teams could go bowling in order to fill out all of the spots.
“I’ll answer that as a fan, I wouldn’t be in favor of that,” Graham said. “There is a certain standard you want to keep. I understand you have to fill out a certain amount of teams and games. Anytime you give kids an opportunity for recognition, I’m all for that. But from a competitive standpoint and a fan standpoint, I wouldn’t be in favor of that.”
Of course, that’s his answer as a fan. His answer as a coach -- where extra practice time is granted to bowl teams -- is drastically different.
“Heck yeah, I would [go],” Graham said. “If I was offered to go to a bowl game or not, I would take it. It’s so vital to your program. We’ve had the luxury every year to be in a bowl game and that extra practice is critical.”
Since 1950, seven teams have gone to bowl games with losing records. The last three (Fresno State 2014, Georgia Tech 2012 and UCLA 2011) had to receive a waiver after losing in their conference championship games. UCLA and Georgia Tech were in the league championship games because the actual champs were serving postseason bans.
Before that, you have to go back to 2001 (North Texas), 1970 (William & Mary), 1963 (SMU) and 1950 (Denver) to find sub-.500 bowl teams. Heading into the weekend, there are 52 bowl-eligible teams for 80 spots.
While Graham was willing to speculate, other Pac-12 coaches on the bubble weren’t as keen to entertain the idea of their team being 5-7. At least not yet.
“I haven’t even paid attention to it,” Petersen said. “Really we’re just focused on Arizona State and getting better and we’ll see where we are after the three weeks we’ve got left.”
Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez, whose team has been sitting on five wins since Oct. 17, had the same non-thought as Petersen. The Wildcats have two regular-season games left and 5-7 isn’t on his radar.
“I didn’t even think about it. Didn’t even know that would be a possibility,” Rodriguez said. “Our goal is to win them both. I’d like to be 7-5 and have a guaranteed winning record for our seniors. I don’t even want to think about that scenario.”