SEC Week 4 picks analysis: Can new-look Auburn knock off Mississippi State?

Luginbill: White has earned Auburn QB role (1:06)

ESPN national recruiting analyst Tom Luginbill discusses QB Sean White's skill set and credentials, which have afforded him the opportunity to start on Saturday against Mississippi State. (1:06)

It’s going to be hard to top last Saturday’s games, but the Week 4 picks are out and there are a handful of games you might as well flip a coin to pick the winner. Not us, though. We always have opinions, and here’s a look at why we chose our winners this week.

Tennessee at Florida

Why Tennessee wins: I know Florida is at home, is riding a long winning streak in this series and boasts the SEC’s most efficient defense (No. 6 overall). I still think Tennessee is the better overall team and will win 28-14. The Volunteers have a far superior offense and I think they’ll be able to force a mistake or two from Florida’s collection of offensive skill players who lack SEC experience. -- David Ching

Why Florida wins: Yeah, Florida is down a couple of players, but I’m still going with the Gators because they have the mental edge in this one. I was on drumline at UF the last time Tennessee beat Florida (2004), and all the pressure is on the Vols. Tennessee is supposed to win this, while Florida is playing with house money with low expectations. Tennessee will be tight and these loose Gators will throw some new wrinkles at the Vols to get the winning streak to 11. -- Edward Aschoff

Mississippi State at Auburn

Why Mississippi State wins: So let me get this straight: Auburn's best player (Carl Lawson) is out, the starting QB has been replaced, the coach is answering questions about effort and they're still the favorites to win? Sorry, I'm not buying that. Give me Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs, 31-20. -- Alex Scarborough

Why Auburn wins: A lot of people will say Malzahn hit the panic button when he changed quarterbacks. It looks that way. Why not wait another week on Jeremy Johnson? Here’s why. He wants to win, and he firmly believes Sean White gives Auburn the best chance to win Saturday. I think you’re going to see this offense get back to running the football, winning the battle up front, and White will make enough plays to win a close one, 27-24. -- Greg Ostendorf

Missouri at Kentucky

Why Missouri wins: Missouri’s defense has been great thus far and I think it will give Kentucky’s offense problems. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t trust the Tigers’ offense either. Maty Mauk is a mess and the running game has struggled since Russell Hansbrough injured his ankle in Week 1. It wouldn’t surprise me if turnovers lead to a number of points in this one, but Missouri holds on, 24-21. -- David Ching

Why Kentucky wins: I've been a believer in Mizzou the last two seasons, especially on the road, where they haven't lost in that span, but watching last week's offensive effort vs. UConn was disturbing. Not that Kentucky was much better against Florida, but the Tigers are averaging an SEC-low 1.5 points per drive according to ESPN Stats and Information. I'm more confident -- at least at this moment in time -- in Kentucky's offense, led by Patrick Towles, Stanley Williams and a talented group of young receivers. I have Kentucky edging out the Tigers 24-20. -- Sam Khan

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)

Why Kliff Kingsbury is right: It wasn't what Coach Handsome said, it was what he was wearing when he said it. I mean, a suit and a white carnation? Really? He wasn't the one to call anyone out. But regardless, he was right. Texas Tech dominated Arkansas and kicked its err, butt, throwing the football. And I expect Kingsbury was right that Texas A&M will do the same and win, 35-24. Until Arkansas gets tougher up front and starts playing better in the red zone, it's going to be an uphill battle. -- Alex Scarborough

Offensive player of the week: Kyle Allen, Texas A&M. I think Prescott could have a big day Saturday, but since I’m picking Auburn to win, I’ll go with Allen. Did you see the numbers Patrick Mahomes put up last week on Arkansas? Allen has taken control at quarterback for the Aggies, and he just gets better and better with each game. -- Greg Ostendorf

Defensive player of the week: Myles Garrett, Texas A&M. Arkansas' offensive line hasn't allowed a sack this season -- one of only five teams nationally with that distinction thus far -- but I have a feeling that the super sophomore will do everything he can to change that. He has been consistently disruptive in his first three games this season and I'll bet that's the case again on Saturday. -- Sam Khan