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4-Point Play: Nets at Hawks

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Brook Lopez and the Nets take on Kyle Korver and the Hawks tonight (8 ET, ESPN).

The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Wednesday’s game between the Brooklyn Nets (22nd in BPI) and the Atlanta Hawks (10th in BPI). Our BPI gives the Hawks a 70 percent chance of winning:

1. The Hawks rely on Kyle Korver to be historically good. Only seven players in NBA history have taken more than 250 3-point shots and had a True Shooting % greater than 65 percent, and Korver leads them all with a TS% of 74 percent. When Korver has a TS% of at least 65 percent, the Hawks win 83 percent of their games. When he is below 65 percent TS%, they win only 71 percent of their games.

2. Defensively, the Hawks are at their best when forcing opponents into mid-range shots. When opponents are scoring 16 percent or more of their points off of mid-range shots, the Hawks give up only 97 points per 100 possessions. When opponents are at 16 percent or less, the Hawks give up an average of 102 points per 100 possessions.

3. The Nets rely on the offensive glass. When they are getting 23 percent or more of the available offensive boards, then they score 102 points per 100 possessions. When they are below 23 percent, they score only 97 points per 100 possessions.

4. The Nets are at their most efficient when Joe Johnson is launching threes. When Johnson is taking more than six 3-point shots per 36 minutes, the Nets score 102 points per 100 possessions. When he is taking fewer than that, they score only 98 points per 100 possessions.