Alex Rodriguez recorded his 661st career home run Thursday night versus the Baltimore Orioles, passing Willie Mays for fourth on the all-time home run list.
At 39 years old it remains unclear how much high level baseball he has left in him. We ask the question, where will A-Rod end up in baseball history?
Quest to catch Ruth, Aaron & Bonds
Rodriguez has not played more than 138 games in a season since 2007, and did not play at all in the 2014 season. He has played approximately the equivalent of two full seasons since 2011.
If Rodriguez plays roughly 125 games per season and hits home runs at the pace he has since the beginning of 2011, he would catch Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds on the all-time home run list at the following times:
• To catch Ruth: 331 games. This would likely happen in September of 2017, at age 42.
• To catch Aaron: 586 games. This would likely happen in September of 2019, at age 44.
• To catch Bonds: 630 games. This would happen roughly in May of 2020, at age 44.
None of Bonds, Ruth or Aaron played beyond his age-42 season. Rodriguez has already played more games than Ruth, but has played 391 fewer games than Bonds and 703 fewer games than Aaron.
Based on these projections, it is extremely unlikely that he could eventually catch Aaron or Bonds, as he would have to play another five seasons at his current level, without showing any of the effects of further aging. The last player to hit even one home run after turning 44 was Julio Franco, who did it 22 times from 2003-2007. In the last 80 years, only six players have even homered at age 44.
What other milestones can he reach?
Rodriguez sits at 1,987 RBIs as of Thursday night, which is good for sixth all time. With 10 more RBIs he will hit 1,997 and eclipse Lou Gehrig and Barry Bonds on that list. Thirteen more RBIs will make him the fourth player with at least 2,000 RBIs.
He is 38 hits from 3,000 for his career, a milestone that could be reached in July or August of this season. He would become the 29th player to reach that mark.
Rodriguez could also tie Eddie Collins for 10th all-time in WAR with 7.7 more, which could happen roughly at the end of 2017.