Seahawks 10, Vikings 9: More wild win-probability swings

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings Win Probability

With two seconds remaining in the third quarter, the Vikings kicked a 47-yard field goal to take a 9-0 lead. Given the conditions and the Seahawks' difficulty moving the ball (126 yards through three quarters), the Vikings appeared to be in control.

After the field goal, the Vikings had an 86 percent chance to win, according to ESPN’s win probability model. That was its highest win probability of the game.

Seattle’s opening drive to start the fourth quarter was highlighted by a miraculous 35-yard completion to Tyler Lockett. That play increased Seattle’s chance of winning from by 13 percentage points and set the Seahawks up for a three-yard touchdown two plays later.

Despite cutting the lead to two, the Seahawks still had only a 37 percent chance to win before kicking off. Things would change quickly after Adrian Peterson’s fumble with about 10 minutes remaining. The fumble would prove costly (increased Seattle’s chance to win by 17 percentage points) as it led to 46-yard field goal that would ultimately be the game winner.

After taking a 10-9 lead, Seattle had a 56 percent chance to win, but Minnesota would have multiple chances to win the game, including a final drive that could have defined Teddy Bridgewater’s young career.

The Vikings got the ball back with 1:42 remaining and needing about 30 yards for a potential game-winning field goal. They gained more than 30 yards after a 19-yard pass interference (plus-22 win probability added) and 24-yard completion to Kyle Rudolph (plus-19 win probability added).

After two short Peterson rushes, the Vikings lined up for a 27-yard field goal. Blair Walsh had already hit three field goals in the game, including two kicks beyond 40 yards. We all know how the game ended as the Seahawks won their fifth straight wild-card game and advanced to face the Panthers in the Divisional Round.