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Ranking Week 4's matchups from best to worst

What are the must-watch games this week? With the help of ESPN’s Matchup Quality metric, which utilizes ESPN's Football Power Index to rank games (on a 0-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be, we determine the best and worst games of Week 4.

1. Panthers at Falcons

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 68 out of 100

FPI win projection: Panthers, 53 percent

The Panthers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start, but they still have a 59 percent chance to win the NFC South, according to FPI. If they lose to the 2-1 Falcons in Week 4, however, their chance to win the division will fall to about 41 percent and the Falcons will likely become the favorites.

2. Chiefs at Steelers

Sunday (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Matchup quality: 66 out of 100

FPI win projection: Steelers, 59 percent

The Steelers welcome back Le’Veon Bell and it could not come at a better time. Pittsburgh posted its worst offensive efficiency (21 out of 100) in its past 13 games last week against Philadelphia, and it is facing one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs lead the league in touchdown-to-interception differential allowed (2 TD, 8 INT) and rank third in opponent QBR on passing plays.

3. Bills at Patriots

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 60 out of 100

FPI win projection: Patriots, 66 percent

The Patriots began the season with an 8 percent chance of starting 4-0 without Tom Brady, according to ESPN’s FPI. Now they are the top team in FPI and are one win away from pulling off the improbable. Buffalo looked impressive last week at home against Arizona, but winning in Foxboro, where the Bills are 1-14 since 2001, is a different challenge.

4. Seahawks at Jets

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 58 out of 100

FPI win projection: Jets, 54 percent

The Seahawks had the highest Game Score in Week 3, while the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six interceptions had one of the worst. It’s a new week and FPI sees that the Jets are facing a team traveling 2,400 miles to MetLife Stadium for an early kickoff. The Seahawks may be a better overall team, but given those factors, FPI expects the Jets to win 54 percent of the time.

5. Broncos at Buccaneers

Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 56 out of 100

FPI win projection: Broncos, 63 percent

We all thought that the Broncos would have a great defense, but their offense with Trevor Siemian has exceeded expectations, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency. Denver now ranks second in FPI and has the third-highest average win projection (11.1) in the NFL behind the Patriots and Vikings.

6. Giants at Vikings

Monday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Matchup quality: 56 out of 100

FPI win projection: Vikings, 75 percent

The Vikings have faced reigning-MVP Cam Newton, two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota, and they still rank fourth in Total QBR allowed. That may not be great news for Eli Manning, who threw three interceptions and was pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks last season in Minnesota.

7. Rams at Cardinals

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 50 out of 100

FPI win projection: Cardinals, 83 percent

After a 1-2 start, FPI isn’t jumping off the Cardinals' bandwagon. Arizona is the biggest FPI favorite of Week 4 and only two other games this season feature a team with a better chance to win. Of course, if Arizona is to improve its record, Carson Palmer, who ranks 23rd in Total QBR, must find the magic that made him the most efficient QB in the league last season.

8. Saints at Chargers

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 50 out of 100

FPI win projection: Chargers, 70 percent

Expect a bunch of points in Drew Brees’ first game back in San Diego. The Saints and Chargers rank in the top 5 in FPI’s offensive projections, while both teams rank in the bottom six in its defensive ratings.

9. Dolphins at Bengals

Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network)

Matchup quality: 47 out of 100

FPI win projection: Bengals, 69 percent

The last time these teams met Thursday night it ended in a memorable walk-off safety in overtime that gave the Dolphins a 22-20 victory. These teams combined for eight sacks in that game, and given each team’s offensive line in 2016, it could be another long night for Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill Thursday Night.

10. Raiders at Ravens

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 47 out of 100

FPI win projection: Ravens, 57 percent

The Ravens are 3-0 with those wins coming by a combined 13 points, which is the lowest point differential for a team to start 3-0 in the past 10 seasons. That’s a stark contrast from last season when they started 0-3 with all three losses coming by a combined 14 points. Maybe the Ravens’ close-game luck will run out, but FPI still gives them the edge at home in Week 4 against the Raiders.

11. Titans at Texans

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 42 out of 100

FPI win projection: Texans, 71 percent

As the only team with a winning record in the AFC South, FPI gives the Texans a 52 percent chance to win its division entering Week 4. However, a loss to the Titans at home could drop those chances to about 34 percent before a difficult matchup with the Vikings in Week 5.

12. Jaguars vs. Colts (London)

Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 36 out of 100

FPI win projection: Colts, 63 percent

Early morning football in London features the 0-3 Jaguars and 1-2 Colts facing off at Wembley Stadium. Andrew Luck has won his past five games against the Jags, but he may need help from his defense, which is allowing the fifth-most yards per play in the NFL.

13. Cowboys at 49ers

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 24 out of 100

FPI win projection: 49ers, 55 percent

The 49ers have been outscored 61-13 in the first three quarters of their past two games, but those games came on the road against two of the top teams. FPI slightly favors the Niners at home, but they must slow Dak Prescott, who has been one of the four most efficient QBs in the league through three weeks.

14. Browns at Redskins

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 23 out of 100

FPI win projection: Redskins, 70 percent

Though this game has lost some of its luster after Robert Griffin III’s injury, the Redskins need to win to keep up with the Eagles in the NFC East. However, there is still a 30 percent chance that the Browns and Cody Kessler win their first game of the season in Washington.

15. Lions at Bears

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 17 out of 100

FPI win projection: Lions, 51 percent

The battle for third place in the NFC North! With two of the five worst projected defenses, this game should feature lots of points and it is also expected to be the closest of any Week 4.