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Ranking Week 5 matchups from best to worst

What are the must-watch games this week? With the help of ESPN’s Matchup Quality metric, which utilizes ESPN's Football Power Index to rank games (on a 0-to-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be, we determined the best and worst games of Week 5.

1. Falcons at Broncos

Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox)

Matchup quality: 66 out of 100

FPI win projection: Broncos, 69 percent

The Falcons’ offense is adding about 17 points per game to their net scoring margin, which is nearly a touchdown more than any other offense in the NFL this season. We all know what Denver’s defense can do; the defending champs rank fourth in defensive efficiency and are putting opponents under duress at the highest rate in the NFL. In a classic matchup of offense versus defense, FPI favors the Broncos, who currently rank No. 1 in FPI, at home.

2. Texans at Vikings

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 58 out of 100

FPI win projection: Vikings, 75 percent

Through four weeks, the Vikings and Texans have two of the three most efficient defenses in the NFL. Minnesota has thrived off turnovers (NFL-high 11 forced), and the Texans’ pass defense has been stifling (NFL-low 52.6 completion percent). Will the “Purple Reign” continue? FPI gives Minnesota about a 3-in-4 chance to beat Houston, which would mark the Vikings’ first 5-0 start since 2009.

3. Jets at Steelers

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 56 out of 100

FPI win projection: Steelers, 76 percent

Last week, Ben Roethlisberger threw for five touchdowns and Le’Veon Bell ran for 144 yards in the Steelers’ dominant win over the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three more interceptions and New York ran for a grand total of 58 yards in its loss to the Seahawks. These teams are trending in opposite directions, but there are no sure wins in the NFL.

4. Giants at Packers

Sunday (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Matchup quality: 53 out of 100

FPI win projection: Packers, 80 percent

After two straight losses, the Giants’ chance to make the playoffs has fallen to 23 percent, and their chance to win the division is at 9 percent. A win at Green Bay could turn those odds quickly. According to FPI, if the Giants win, their chance to make the playoffs will rise to about 41 percent and division odds will jump to 19 percent. Unfortunately for Big Blue, FPI expects this to be the most lopsided game of Week 5.

5. Chargers at Raiders

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 53 out of 100

FPI win projection: Raiders, 61 percent

Despite their 1-3 record, the Chargers have run the most plays in the NFL this season when holding a lead. Meanwhile, the Raiders (3-1) have run 69 fewer plays than the Chargers when leading but have been spectacular in the fourth quarter in two one-point wins. The last four matchups between these teams have been decided by one score, and FPI again expects a close game in Oakland.

6. Eagles at Lions

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox)

Matchup quality: 50 out of 100

FPI win projection: Eagles, 66 percent

All eyes are on Carson Wentz, but the Eagles’ 3-0 start has been a team effort. Their defense sits atop ESPN’s efficiency rankings, while their special-teams unit ranks fourth. As a result, the Eagles lead the league in overall efficiency and are outscoring their opponents by nearly 22 points per game, by far the best margin in the NFL. On paper this is a mismatch, but the game is in Detroit, and the Lions’ offense (10th in efficiency) can still make some noise.

7. Bengals at Cowboys

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 49 out of 100

FPI win projection: Bengals, 50.5 percent

The Bengals currently have the seventh-best chance in the AFC (41 percent) to make the playoffs, and the Cowboys have the sixth-best chance in the NFC (54 percent). With the conference races tightly grouped, this game is expected to have the biggest league-wide playoff impact of any Week 5 game. It is also expected to be the closest game of the week, with the Bengals a 0.2-point FPI favorite in Dallas.

8. Buccaneers at Panthers

Monday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Matchup quality: 44 out of 100

FPI win projection: Panthers, 76 percent

The Panthers and Buccaneers have combined for 21 turnovers, which have led to 88 points for their opponents this season. Only the Jets have been more turnover prone. Both teams are off to disappointing starts, but the NFC South has seen some wild comebacks and collapses in recent years, so their seasons are far from over.

9. Bills at Rams

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 42 out of 100

FPI win projection: Bills, 56 percent

Who would have thought after Week 1 that the Bills and Rams would be entering this game with five wins combined, including wins against the Cardinals (by both), Seahawks and Patriots? Which team’s surprise run will continue? FPI gives the Bills a 56 percent chance to win in Los Angeles, but the game is projected to be one of the closest in Week 5.

10. Bears at Colts

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox)

Matchup quality: 40 out of 100

FPI win projection: Colts, 71 percent

Ten years ago, these teams met in Super Bowl XLI. It’s probably fair to say that they won’t be facing off for another Lombardi trophy this season with both teams 1-3 and struggling to keep their quarterbacks upright.

11. Cardinals at 49ers

Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network)

Matchup quality: 37 out of 100

FPI win projection: Cardinals, 63 percent

Despite the Cardinals’ three losses, FPI refuses to give up on Arizona, which is still projected to finish with an average of eight wins this season. If the Cardinals are to reach that mark, however, these are the games they will want to win. FPI favors Arizona by about five points in San Francisco on Thursday.

12. Patriots at Browns

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 37 out of 100

FPI win projection: Patriots, 75 percent

Welcome back, Tom Brady. With the Browns by far the worst team in the league, per FPI, Brady should be able to ease into his first start of the 2016 season as nearly a double-digit road favorite. Expect the Patriots to come out firing after posting their worst game score (6.8) in more than six years in their 16-0 loss to Buffalo last week.

13. Redskins at Ravens

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Fox)

Matchup quality: 37 out of 100

FPI win projection: Ravens, 63 percent

The Ravens are the only team in the league that has had each game this season decided by six or fewer points, and this is after a league-high 12 of their games were decided by that margin in 2015. FPI again expects a close game but favors the Ravens by about five points at home.

14. Titans at Dolphins

Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 33 out of 100

FPI win projection: Dolphins, 64 percent

The least desirable matchup of Week 5 belongs to the Titans and Dolphins. Both 1-3 teams are struggling offensively with their quarterbacks ranked 29th or worse in Total QBR.

Bye: Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars