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Ranking the NFL Week 7 matchups from best to worst

What are the must-watch games this week? With the help of ESPN’s Matchup Quality metric, which utilizes ESPN's Football Power Index to rank games (on a 0-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be, we determine the best and worst games of Week 7.

1. Vikings at Eagles

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 79 out of 100

FPI win projection: Vikings, 56 percent

As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Vikings already have a 59 percent chance for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That chance will rise to about 68 percent with a win at Philadelphia on Sunday. Improving to 6-0 will not be easy, however, with the Eagles ranked fourth in overall efficiency and posting the top average scoring margin (plus-11.4 per game) in the NFL this season.

2. Patriots at Steelers

Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 78 out of 100

FPI win projection: Patriots, 59 percent

Tom Brady has won eight of his 10 career starts against the Steelers, including the playoffs. The Patriots are ranked first in FPI and have a 49 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. A win against the Steelers would bump their chance for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to 62 percent.

3. Seahawks at Cardinals

Sunday (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Matchup quality: 72 out of 100

FPI win projection: Cardinals, 65 percent

The Seahawks have won three straight road games against the Cardinals, outscoring them by 23.7 points per game. This matchup has the largest playoff impact of any game this week. With a win, the Cardinals will have about a 65 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FPI, but their playoff odds will drop to approximately 34 percent with a loss. The Seahawks will have an 88 percent chance of making the playoffs with a win, but a 63 percent chance with a loss.

4. Chargers at Falcons

Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 61 out of 100

FPI win projection: Falcons, 63 percent

The Falcons boast the best offensive efficiency in the NFL and average a league-high 33.2 points per game. Victims of close losses, the Chargers are the only team with a losing record that has a positive point differential.

5. Bills at Dolphins

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 59 out of 100

FPI win projection: Bills, 59 percent

The Bills average the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (166.3) and the Dolphins allow the second-most (174.3). The Bills are the only team to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of three road teams favored by FPI this weekend.

6. Texans at Broncos

Monday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Matchup quality: 56 out of 100

FPI win projection: Broncos, 75 percent

Brock Osweiler will face his former team for the first time, but a return to Mile High will not be easy. The Broncos are allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL and have a league-high 21 sacks.

7. Saints at Chiefs

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 51 out of 100

FPI win projection: Chiefs, 66 percent

In four of their five games this season, both the Saints and their opponents have scored more than 30 points. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have only scored or allowed 30 points in one game this season.

8. Bears at Packers

Thursday (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 48 out of 100

FPI win projection: Packers, 79 percent

These two teams have met more than any other in the regular season in NFL history (190 games). The Packers are one of two teams (along with the Bills) to have a positive FPI rating on offense, defense and special teams, while the Bears are expected to be below average in all three phases of the game.

9. Colts at Titans

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 40 out of 100

FPI win projection: Titans, 58 percent

Andrew Luck is 7-0 against the Titans in his career, but FPI favors Tennessee by a field goal at home. A win by the Titans would be their fourth of the season, more than they had in each of the past two seasons.

10. Browns at Bengals

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 37 out of 100

FPI win projection: Bengals, 82 percent

FPI favors the Bengals by about 12 points, the largest advantage of the week. Why? Only the Jets (-69) have been outscored by more points than the Browns this season (-63).

11. Raiders at Jaguars

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 34 out of 100

FPI win projection: Jaguars, 55 percent

The Raiders won their first game in the Eastern Time Zone this season (28-27 over the Ravens) after having lost 18 of their previous 19 when heading to the East Coast. Expect a close game as the Raiders have five games decided by a touchdown or less, and four of the Jaguars’ five games have been decided by four points or fewer.

12. Rams vs. Giants

Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network)

Matchup quality: 33 out of 100

FPI win projection: Giants, 64 percent

The Rams could have a winning record through seven games for the second time in the past 10 seasons (4-3 in 2015). The Giants will need to protect the ball as only the Jets (-11) have a worse turnover differential (-10).

13. Redskins at Lions

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality; 33 out of 100

FPI win projection: Lions, 54 percent

A win would give the Redskins their first 5-2 start or better since 2008. However, the Lions have won the last three matchups and FPI has them favored by about a point.

14. Buccaneers at 49ers

Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)

Matchup quality: 29 out of 100

FPI win projection: 49ers, 65 percent

First team to 20 might win this game as the two least efficient offenses in the NFL face off. The 49ers have lost five games in a row, but a meeting with the Bucs could get them back on the right track. San Francisco has won four of the last five meetings in this series.

15. Ravens at Jets

Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)

Matchup quality: 28 out of 100

FPI Win projection: Jets, 53 percent

FPI gives the Jets a 53 percent chance of winning, the lowest percentage by a projected winner this week.

On bye: Cowboys, Panthers