Some stuff I'm thinking about ...
The Chicago Cubs don't have baseball's best record -- the Washington Nationals are 14-4 and the Cubs 14-5 -- but they have been the most impressive team. The Nationals have cleaned up on an easy schedule that has included only the Braves, Phillies, Marlins and Twins. Meanwhile, the Cubs have an amazing plus-68 run differential thanks to nine wins of at least five runs; they had just 16 such wins in all of 2015. Heck, they've been so dominant closer Hector Rondon has appeared in just five games. The pitching has been superlative with a 2.51 ERA, but the scary thing for Cubs opponents is that, other than Dexter Fowler -- who has arguably been the best player in the league through three weeks with a .385/.506/.692 batting line -- all the offensive regulars are capable of doing better. Anthony Rizzo has five home runs in his past five games but is hitting just .203. Jason Heyward is slugging .315. Miguel Montero is hitting .208/.316/.333. Addison Russell and Jorge Soler have the ability to improve. It's obviously early, but this is looking like a 100-win team.
Speaking of Fowler, one key for his hot start: He has cut down on his chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone, from 19.0 percent in 2015 to 14.1 percent. His overall contact rate is the same as 2015; he's swinging at more strikes and fewer balls. He ranks fourth in lowest chase rate, behind only Francisco Cervelli, Chase Headley and Jose Bautista. On defense, his metrics are also improved, with plus-3 defensive runs saved so far, after finishing with minus-12 last year. He's playing a deeper center field, which seems to be helping. Joe Maddon had mentioned that the metrics from the front office suggested Fowler should play deeper. This might be a thing: Note that Kevin Kiermaier also plays a deeper center field. Fowler leads the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR at 1.8 (Jake Arrieta is at 1.7).
Right behind Fowler in WAR is Houston Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus at 1.7. Although Fowler didn't sign until spring training had started, Rasmus surprisingly accepted the Astros' qualifying offer, which they weren't necessarily expecting. But he's hitting .293/.440/.707 with seven home runs and a strikeout/walk ratio of 17-16, a huge improvement over his 154-47 ratio of 2015. As with Fowler, it's all about swinging at strikes instead of balls: His chase rate has decreased from 27.1 percent (about his career norm) to 19.7 percent. He's always been inconsistent, so let's see if this is a real change in approach or just a three-week hot streak.
As for the rest of the Astros, they've been the league's most disappointing team. I picked the Astros to win the AL West, mostly because I thought the offense was solid and the bullpen deep and I loved the front three of Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. and Collin McHugh. Instead, McCullers is out with a shoulder injury, McHugh has allowed 31 hits in 16 2/3 innings and Keuchel is coming off a 13-hit game after walking 10 in his first two starts. Overall, the rotation has a 5.31 ERA, which is why Jim Bowden suggested Monday that the Astros need to go acquire a starting pitcher. There's been some bad luck -- the starters have allowed a .348 BABIP, highest in the majors -- but they also have the second-lowest strikeout rate, better than only the Milwaukee Brewers. What's odd about that BABIP is that Baseball Info Solutions rates the Astros as a good defensive team so far, at plus-9 DRS, tied for fifth in the majors. The offense, even with Carlos Gomez struggling and Evan Gattis not hitting, has been fine, ranking second in the AL in OBP and fourth in slugging. The pen is still deep, assuming Ken Giles gets straightened out. I guess I'm saying I expect the Astros to turn things around, but that obviously starts with getting better results from Keuchel and McHugh and hoping McCullers returns.
Aledmys Diaz of the St. Louis Cardinals had a 5-for-5 day Saturday, then three more hits Sunday; he is now leading the majors with a .480 average. Half of his 24 hits have gone for extra bases, so he's making hard contact. The thing I like is he puts the ball in play, with just three strikeouts in 53 plate appearances, giving him the majors' third-lowest K rate. He has struggled defensively with five errors and an .865 fielding percentage, so he might not stick at shortstop. Is the bat for real? It might be. He left Cuba when he was just 20 and missed his age 21 and 22 seasons as he gained approval to play here. He played just 47 games in 2014 after signing with the Cardinals, so he barely played in a three-year span. His bat then came alive in the second half in the minors last year and seems to be improving in the majors. Once Jhonny Peralta is healthy, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals sort out the infield.
Bryce Harper? What can you say? Other than: He's 23, why does he need a day off anyway?
.@Nationals trailed by one in the 9th.@Bharper3407 came up to pinch-hit ...https://t.co/EtcVjcjduU
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2016
Michael Pineda of the New York Yankees continues to be a frustrating tease. He's presenting a case that you can throw too many strikes. He has an excellent 27-5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings but has allowed 30 hits, including seven home runs (four in Sunday's loss). It's worth noting that he also had a three-homer game this year, also in Yankee Stadium, and last year 16 of the 21 home runs he allowed came at Yankee Stadium. I'd suggest he's getting burned by the short right-field porch, but 18 of his 28 home runs the past two seasons have come against right-handed batters -- and six of those 18 came when he was ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2. Three of the four home runs Sunday came on first-pitch fastballs. He has to start making smarter pitches.