Considering a trade where Titans would deal No. 2 to Browns

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- One potential trade partner for the Titans as they consider dealing the No. 2 pick to someone who wants a quarterback is the Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland has trade capital because it owns No. 12 and No. 19 in the first round. The second of those first-rounders comes from Buffalo as part of the Bills move up last year to draft Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins.

I don’t believe you must win a deal on the old draft value chart in order to make a good trade. That original chart, drawn up by Jimmy Johnson when he was in Dallas, is outdated. But GMs still get judged against it.

I’ve made a pledge that I won’t be critical of the Titans if they make something that looks like a good deal but don’t “win” on that chart.

Let’s look at what the Browns would need to give the Titans to make things even on the Jimmy Johnson chart.

  • Cleveland gets No. 2.

  • Tennessee gets No. 12, No. 19, No. 43 (in the second round), and No. 115 (in the fourth round.)

That’s a huge haul. If the Titans can get that and wind up with 10 picks, that’d be great, even in a year when the draft isn’t loaded.

That would leave the Titans with five of the top 66 picks, six of the top 100 and seven of the top 115.

The Browns haven’t always made good decisions. Could they love Marcus Mariota (or Jameis Winston) so much that they’d make that deal?

I’m sure the Titans are hoping so.

Chase Stuart of Football Perspective has a calculator where you can plug in picks and see how things balance out on the old chart.

He’s also got a more modern calculator that offers a more analytical look at trade-pick value “designed to measure the actual expected value from each draft pick.”

In that calculator, the Titans-Brown trade that would qualify as roughly even on the Jimmy Johnson trade would qualify as a rout for Tennessee.

The old chart overvalues high picks.

The newer chart adjusts for that.

As they look to make a deal, the Titans are going to favor something close to the old chart.