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Week 11 contrarian NFL betting strategy

REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

Every week in this space, I examine historical betting trends from our extensive Bet Labs database and develop profitable systems by going against the grain and taking unpopular viewpoints. Casual bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events, and contrarian bettors are consistently able to find value by capitalizing on public perception.

Some of these betting systems can be exceedingly complicated and contain numerous filters. This week, I wanted to keep things simple by looking at one of the most basic contrarian strategies: buying low after a blowout loss.

Since the start of the 2003 season, there has been a slight edge taking teams following a loss. It's possible that teams are motivated to avenge their defeats from the previous week, but that's pure speculation. The biggest consideration, as always, is how blowouts affect public opinion.