<
>
EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
Get ESPN+

Week 16 contrarian NFL betting system

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

For contrarian bettors, there's never a better opportunity to find value than the week after casual bettors post significant gains. When big favorites and public teams come through for squares, there's an inevitable chain of events that can ultimately be exploited by opportunistic bettors.

At this point, I probably sound like a broken record, but sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they're going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. When casual bettors have a huge week, it often confirms preexisting biases and encourages bettors to use their same flawed strategy the following week. These square bettors are now more confident, and now they're