NFL Week 16 upset watch: Are the Jaguars as bad as they appear to be?

Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville defense have quietly had a solid season as the Jaguars floundered due to a lackluster offense -- and they could do enough to inspire an upset Sunday in Miami. Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire

The Jacksonville Jaguars collapsed this season. They were expected to compete for a spot in the Super Bowl, and the start of the Jaguars' season lined up with that idea at 3-1 -- but then they lost seven games in a row.

The Jaguars eventually benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but backup Cody Kessler ranks 28th in the league with 31.5 QBR since he became the starter. Jacksonville is 4-10 and a complete afterthought.

In fact, Jacksonville has been so easily dismissed as one of the worst teams in the league that nobody has noticed that it isn't actually one of the worst teams in the league. Yes, the Jaguars are 4-10, but they rank 18th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings.

Few people have noticed that the Jacksonville defense, while not dominating the way it did in 2017, is still pretty good. The Jaguars rank sixth in the league in both points and yards allowed, and fifth in both yards per play and DVOA. They've also been excellent on special teams (third); combine that very good defense and a horrible offense (29th), and you get a team that's really just a little bit below average, not way below average.

Upset watch: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)

In our DVOA rankings, Jacksonville ranks six