Early NFL win totals I like: Mike Clay's projections for all 32 teams

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With the vast majority of free agency in the rearview mirror, here is a look at how my 2019 win total projections compare to early sportsbook win totals.

With numbers for all 32 teams, there are several teams that stand out as good value to me -- even before the NFL draft later this month.

All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of April 10.


New England Patriots (over/under: 11 wins)

The Patriots have won at least 10 games each of the past 16 seasons and more than 11 in eight of the past nine. The big concern is the offense without Rob Gronkowski, as there was a moderate-to-significant drop in touchdowns, passing yards, completion percentage and yards per attempt in the 29 games for which Gronkowski was sidelined since he was drafted in 2010. In total, the players responsible for 40 percent of the team's 2018 targets are currently not on the 2019 roster. On the plus side, the defense is allowing 2.1 touchdowns per game since 2007 and has been near or better than average all 12 seasons. The Patriots are set up with the league's easiest schedule this season.

Projected wins: 11.3
Pick: Over

New York Jets (O/U: 7)

The key for this team will be second-year QB Sam Darnold, who completed 58 percent of his passes (third-lowest) last season, though he did post a 9.4 aDOT (average depth of target, fourth-highest). Darnold finished strong with a 6-to-1 TD:INT mark in his final four games. The Jets' offensive line remains suspect; Darnold was pressured on 25 percent of his dropbacks last season (sixth-highest). The past three defenses led by new DC Gregg Williams have finished worse than average in touchdowns per game. The defense has a lot of talent (including C.J. Mosley, Jamal Adams, Leonard Williams, Trumaine Johnson and Avery Williamson), but edge rusher remains a massive concern. The Jets have the second-easiest schedule, and it's worth noting that the second-place team in a division has won eight-plus games 86.7 percent of the time since the 2002 realignment.