Week 1 NFL Best Bets: A number we like on each game

Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) will tell us what they like from Week 1's Sunday NFL slate:

Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.

1 p.m. games

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3, Total: 40.5)

Kezirian: It's a new era for Gang Green where the offense leads the way and the defense is suspect. Specifically, the cornerback position is one of the NFL's weakest, with Trumaine Johnson recovering from a hamstring injury and a bunch of questions behind him. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has looked sharp in limited preseason action, and all reports suggest the unit will play up-tempo under new head coach Adam Gase. For Buffalo, the defense is a strength, but the offense has shown it is capable of scoring, and for all of Josh Allen's faults, he does like to throw the ball down the field. Against the Jets' secondary and lack of edge rush, that could mean some big plays. The past three meetings all finished at least 13 points over the total, and I think both teams can reach 20 points.