Week 14 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

We've reached Week 14 of the NFL season and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Mackenzie Kraemer and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network are here to tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Youmans 2-2 (26-20-1 on season)
Kezirian 2-1 (14-19-1)
Bearman 0-3 (13-15-1)
Clay 0-1 (19-9)
Fortenbaugh 1-1 (27-23-1)
Johnson 0-1 (17-21-1)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

1 p.m. games

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 44.5)

Kezirian: I think the 49ers are a legitimate contender, but this is a very difficult ask. San Francisco just played a grueling game in Baltimore and stayed out east for this back-to-back road game. The team is practicing in Florida this week and then will travel to New Orleans. A similar approach worked during the season's first two weeks when the Niners won and covered in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, but covering +2.5 in New Orleans is a much more difficult request. I'll take the bait with the short number, as I'm unsure I trust Jimmy Garoppolo in the Superdome.

Pick: Saints -2.5