The Buffalo Bills were the beneficiaries of an easy schedule in 2019. Their only win against a team that ended the season with a winning record was a victory over Tennessee back when Marcus Mariota was still the Titans' starting quarterback. Normally, a record dependent on schedule is a recipe for first-round playoff failure. But that's not necessarily true for the Bills. They played well against top teams in their most recent losses, and their first-round opponent, the Houston Texans, are the weakest team in this season's playoff field, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings.
Upset Watch: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)
These are two teams going in opposite directions over the second half of the season. Both teams went 4-3 in their final seven games, which included a Week 17 loss where each team sat starters for most or all of the game. But compare the other two losses over the past two months. Both teams lost to Baltimore, but Buffalo lost by seven and Houston lost by 34. Buffalo's other loss was to a strong New England team; Houston's other loss was to a mediocre Denver squad.