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NFL divisional round upset picks: How the Seahawks can beat the Packers

Russell Wilson was much better when facing pressure this season than in past seasons. AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

There are big advantages that come with a top-two seed in the NFL playoffs. Your team gets a week of rest while you skip the wild-card round, and then you get home field against a team that usually had an inferior regular season. The Green Bay Packers get both of these advantages, making them the favorite on Sunday evening against the Seattle Seahawks. But if this were a game on a neutral field with neutral rest, our numbers would favor the Seahawks.

Seattle is the clear choice among this weekend's underdogs as the most likely to pull off an upset win and move on to the conference championship round.Let's examine why.


Upset Watch: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5)

I've covered the Packers multiple times in Upset Watch this season, and each time I bring up the fact that the Packers have an unsustainable record in close games and overall won more games than would be normally expected given their points scored and allowed. What's interesting about this matchup is that the same thing is true of the Seahawks.