The first leg of the quarterfinals saw Bayern Munich and Liverpool stumble the most. Bayern's SPI chances to advance dropped from 67% to 29% after a 3-2 home loss to PSG, and Liverpool's odds fell from 53% to 20% after a 3-1 defeat in Madrid.
Chelsea's 2-0 "away" win over Porto (both legs are in Seville) bumped the Blues' chances of reaching the semis to 99%, and Manchester City's projection (84%) barely moved after a 2-1 home win over Dortmund.
I don't know that we truly learned much about any of the teams in the first leg, so these plays echo several of my first-leg thoughts. As always, with the possibility of extra time in the second leg, remember that bets are for 90 minutes unless otherwise indicated.