Swami Says: Chris Berman's Week 4 NFL picks

Chris Berman is taking his Swami Says NFL picks segment seen on SportsCenter to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 14-3 ATS (last week: 4-1)

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have made the trip to England before, but if they don't win this time, will they leave the team over in London? I'm predicting they'll come back to a heroes' welcome in the pool in Jacksonville. If not now, when does this team win? A divisional game against a banged-up Colts defense should do the trick: Jaguars by 3.

Score: Jaguars 23, Colts 20

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Chicago's current favorite team (the Cubs) has won more than 100 games this season. Can't the Bears win one? Chicago is 1-8 at home since the start of last season, including a woeful 1-7-1 against the number. If they're going to go 4-12 this season, doesn't this have to be one of the four? This is a gut feeling, but I think they'll get a win in a home divisional game against a Detroit team that's sputtering a bit right now.

Score: Bears 24, Lions 23

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Houston -- hello? The Texans have had 10 days to figure out what happened in that 27-0 dud in New England, as well as plan life without J.J. Watt. If this team is going to win the AFC South, it has to win games like this. Texans get it done at home.

Score: Texans 24, Titans 17

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

The only game Carolina lost in the 2015 regular season was right here in Week 16. Atlanta looked awfully good on offense on Monday Night Football and will be riding that high, but the Falcons face a much stiffer defensive test here. Carolina will be fine in the long run, but they've been understandably jostled with everything that's happened in Charlotte, and I don't think they're back to their old selves just yet. Falcons win this one in an upset.

Score: Falcons 27, Panthers 26

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers played on the road the past two weeks against teams that were better than them, in Carolina and Seattle. Dallas just isn't in that same class. Dak Prescott isn't a mirage, but San Francisco has a game it can win here. I saw the 49ers at home in Week 1; they're a different team in Santa Clara. And by the way, has it really been 35 seasons since "The Catch"?

Score: 49ers 28, Cowboys 27