College football Week 14 betting nuggets

Despite a lack of fans in the stands, home teams are starting to gain an edge this college football season. Although home teams are just 216-210-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, over the past two weeks they are 50-37-1 for a cover percentage of 57.5%.

After Tuesday night's College Football Playoff rankings shuffle, there's just one game involving ranked teams: No. 12 Indiana visits No. 16 Wisconsin. This season, ranked-vs.-ranked matchups have belonged to the favorites, with those teams going 17-8-1 ATS. The Badgers are a two-touchdown favorite at Camp Randall Stadium. For that matchup, as well as 21st-ranked Marshall's game with Rice, the totals are currently under 46 points. When games have a total of 46 points or lower this season, the over is 28-12.

Here are some more tidbits to help you through the weekend of games.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.

Friday's game

No. 25 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers (-2.5, 52), 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

• Louisiana is the road underdog in this matchup, but since the start of the 2010 season, the Ragin' Cajuns are 31-17-1 ATS in that situation for a 65% cover rate. That's the second-best cover percentage for a team as a road underdog since 2010, trailing only Kansas State (27-12-1).

• Appalachian State is 2-7 ATS this season after going 16-8-2 ATS over the previous two seasons. Since moving to the FBS in 2014, Appalachian State has yet to have more than seven ATS losses in a season.

• Despite being 0-8 vs Appalachian State since the Mountaineers moved to the FBS for the 2014 season, Louisiana is 3-5 against them ATS, including 3-2 ATS on the road.

Saturday's games

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-24, 59.5) at Michigan State Spartans, noon ET on ABC

• The past five meetings between these schools have all gone under, with the past three being Ohio State covers. The Buckeyes are 10-5 ATS against Michigan State dating back to 2003.

• Michigan State is 4-1 ATS vs. Ohio State in the five meetings since the 1978 FBS/FCS split with a spread of 20 points or more. That includes an outright win for the Spartans in 1998 as a 27-point underdog.

• Michigan State won its most recent game as an underdog of 20 points or more, Oct. 31 against Michigan (+21.5). Since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the Spartans are 9-4 ATS with two outright wins as a 'dog of at least 20 points.

No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 49) at Auburn Tigers, noon ET on ESPN

• Texas A&M is 5-0 ATS as a road favorite dating to 2017, with a 4-0 ATS mark under coach Jimbo Fisher.

• Auburn is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog in the Gus Malzahn era, with six outright wins.

• Seven of Auburn's eight games this season have gone under. That's the highest under percentage by any team with at least four games played this season.

No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 51) at TCU Horned Frogs, noon ET on ESPN2

• Oklahoma State has failed to cover in each of its past four games. The Cowboys haven't failed to cover in five straight games since the 2014 season.

• Over the past five seasons, Oklahoma State is 7-1-1 ATS in games where the spread is 3 points or fewer. The Cowboys are 8-1 straight up in those games

• Oklahoma State is 5-4 outright (3-5-1 ATS) in its past nine games as a road favorite.

• The past three meetings between these teams have gone over, but just by an average of 3.2 PPG. The past two meetings have gone over by a combined two points.

Western Carolina Catamounts at No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels (-49.5, 69.5), noon ET on ACC Network

• This would be the biggest spread for North Carolina since at least the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The previous most points the Tar Heels have been favored by was 38.5 against Mercer last season (won game by 49).

• Over the past two seasons, FBS teams that were at least 48-point favorites are 2-9 ATS.

• FBS teams have had a losing ATS record against non-FBS teams each of the past five seasons (203-250-11 overall).

Rice Owls at No. 21 Marshall Thundering Herd (-23.5, 44.5), noon ET on ESPN+

• The over is 28-12 in games with a total of 46 points or lower this season.

• Marshall is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games as a 20-plus point favorite. It was 10-2-1 ATS in its previous 13 games as a 20-point plus favorite.

• Rice is 6-1-1 in its past eight games as an underdog of 20 or more points but has lost each of its past 34 such games. The Owls most recently won as a 20-point underdog in October 2007 (+20.5 vs Southern Miss).

Syracuse Orange at No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-34, 51.5), 2:30 p.m. ET

• Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS as a favorite of at least 30 points over the past 25 seasons and hasn't lost outright as a favorite that big in 22 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

• Syracuse is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 30 points since 2005, with one of those covers coming against Notre Dame in 2005 (lost by 24 as a 33.5-point favorite).

• Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS vs. Syracuse under coach Brian Kelly (0-3 ATS in previous three meetings from 2003 through 2008).

No. 6 Florida Gators (-17.5, 61.5) at Tennessee Volunteers, 3:30 p.m. ET

• This is the sixth consecutive road game in which Florida has been a favorite, the school's longest such streak since it was favored in 11 straight road games in 2007-10. The Gators are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2008 season.

• Florida is 8-2 ATS on the road against Tennessee and 3-0 ATS since the 1978 FBS/FCS split as a road favorite against Tennessee of seven or more points.

• Tennessee is 1-9 ATS as a home underdog of 13 or more points dating to 1990 (0-10 outright).

• Tennessee has failed to cover in five straight games (and eight of past nine dating to last season).

West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 49.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

• West Virginia has failed to cover in its past eight December/January games, dating to the 2012 season. It is 2-6 straight up in those eight games.

• West Virginia is 4-1 ATS (with two outright wins) in its past five games as a road underdog.

• Iowa State is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games after failing to cover in its previous six games dating to the 2019 season.

No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 45.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

• The over is 28-12 in games with a total of 46 points or lower this season.

• This would be the fifth time Wisconsin has been a favorite of at least 10 points over a ranked team since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The Badgers are just 1-3 ATS in the previous four and lost their most recent such game outright, against 20th-ranked Northwestern in 2015.

• Indiana is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season and is also 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons. No FBS team has gone undefeated ATS (minimum five games with a spread) since Temple in 1984 (8-0 ATS, three games without known spreads).

• Indiana is 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams this season. No team has played four or more games vs. ranked teams and gone perfect ATS since Oklahoma State (5-0) and Clemson (4-0) in 2018. The most recent Big Ten team to do so was Ohio State in 2014 (4-0).

No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 51) at Illinois Fighting Illini, 3:30 p.m. ET

• Iowa is 6-13 ATS as a double-digit favorite in Big Ten play since the start of the 2010 season with four outright losses.

• Iowa is 17-6 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2013 season. That's the best such mark among 41 teams with at least 20 games as a road favorite in that time.

• Illinois is 3-6 outright as a double-digit underdog since the start of last season. That's tied with Nevada and Kansas State for the most such wins.

No. 24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-12, 49.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2

• This will be the first time Tulsa has been a double-digit road favorite twice in a season (-12 earlier this season at South Florida) since 2011 (three times). Tulsa hasn't lost outright as a double-digit road favorite since November 2004 (18 straight wins since) and is 8-2 ATS in such games dating to the start of the 2009 season.

• Tulsa is 3-0 ATS on the road this season and has covered eight of its past nine road games over the past two seasons.

• Navy will be an underdog for its fifth consecutive home game (all five home games this season). That's the longest streak of home games as an underdog for Navy since the 1998-99 seasons (also five straight).

Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-35.5, 54), 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network

• Georgia is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as at least a 30-point favorite and has failed to cover in its past five games as at least a 35-point favorite. The most recent such cover game in September 2015 vs. UL Monroe.

• Going back to 2009, favorites of 34 points or more in SEC games are 1-7 ATS.

• Vanderbilt is 2-0 this season as an underdog of 30 or more points (+31.5 in both games) and is 8-1 ATS when an underdog of 31 or more points since the start of the 1995 season (all nine games were outright losses).

Stanford Cardinal at No. 22 Washington Huskies (-11.5, 51), 4 p.m. ET

• Stanford has failed to cover in seven straight games (and 12 of its past 14). The Cardinal most recently failed to cover in seven straight games during a nine-game streak spanning the 1995 and '96 seasons.

• Over the past two seasons, Stanford is 1-6 ATS as an underdog.

• Stanford would be a double-digit underdog for the seventh time over the past two seasons (1-5 ATS in previous six). The Cardinal were not a double-digit underdog in any game from 2014 through 2018 and only twice from 2010 through 2018.

• Six of Washington's past seven games have gone under.

No. 23 Oregon Ducks (-10, 58) at California Golden Bears, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN

• Oregon is 21-10-1 ATS as a road favorite over the past 10 seasons, tying for the fifth-most wins over that span among all teams.

• California is 4-9 ATS in its past 13 home games dating to the 2018 season.

• California is 18-8 ATS as an underdog over the past four seasons, the third-best record for a team with at least 20 games as an underdog (behind Iowa State and Purdue).

No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-22, 67) at Virginia Tech Hokies, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

• Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is 22-11 in his career ATS as a starting quarterback, with a 8-2 ATS mark in road games.

• Five straight Clemson games have gone over, following a nine-game stretch in which the over was 2-6-1 in Clemson games.

• Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS against top-five teams dating to 2005 and has failed to cover in its past five games against top-10 teams. This season, the Hokies are 0-3 ATS against ranked opponents.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29.5, 67.5) at LSU Tigers, 8 p.m. ET

• This is the largest underdog spot for a reigning champion since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, regardless of location. The only other time LSU has been at least a 28-point underdog in that span is in 1991 against No. 1 Florida State (+28, lost by 11). LSU's largest upset in that span is as a 24-point underdog to Alabama in 1993.

• Alabama has covered in five straight games. It has not covered in six straight games in the Nick Saban era (starting in 2007). The Crimson Tide's most recent six-game cover streak came in the 1994 season under Gene Stallings, when Alabama covered in its final seven games of the season.

• LSU does show up big for big matchups. The Tigers have covered five straight games against AP top-five teams and are 7-1 ATS against top-five teams since the start of the 2017 season. Over those four seasons, LSU is 12-2-1 against AP top-10 teams.

• No team has a better ATS record as an underdog over the past four seasons than LSU's 8-1 mark.

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (-15, 61) at Duke Blue Devils, 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network

• Miami is 1-4 ATS as a double-digit road favorite over the past four seasons, with two outright losses in that span (-12 vs. Pittsburgh in 2017, -21 vs. Florida International in 2019).

• All nine of Duke's matchups against ranked teams over the past five seasons have gone under by an average of 15.6 PPG.

• The past three meetings between these teams have gone under by 12.5 PPG after five of the previous six meetings went over.

Baylor Bears at No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-22, 62.5), 8 p.m. ET

• Oklahoma has covered in five straight games overall, its longest streak since a seven-game stretch over the 2016-17 seasons.

• This could be the first time Baylor has been a 20-point or greater underdog in a game since September 2018 (+21.5 vs Oklahoma, lost game 66-33).

• Baylor is 24-11-1 as an underdog since the start of the 2012 season. The 68.6 cover percentage is the fourth-best mark among all teams and the best among teams with at least 20 games as an underdog in that time.