NFL Week 16 betting nuggets: Chicago's spread woes

David Montgomery and the Chicago Bears have failed to cover in five straight games. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Favorites rallied last week for their third consecutive profitable week. Favorites are 27-16 ATS over the past three weeks, improving to a 47.3 cover percentage for the season.

Two of the biggest favorites last week lost outright in Arizona and Tampa Bay. Arizona has lost three straight home games despite being the favorite. The Cardinals are favorites again at home on Saturday against Indianapolis.

Tampa Bay's loss to New Orleans dropped the Buccaneers from being the outright Super Bowl favorites and dropped Tom Brady from the odds-on MVP favorite to second behind Aaron Rodgers. This week, the Buccaneers are on track to become the second team to be a double-digit road favorite one week after getting shut out when they host Carolina on Sunday.

That Buccaneers-Saints game was one of 10 games to go under the total last week. Unders are now hitting over 55% of the time this season, which remains on pace to be the highest mark since 1986.

Last week/Season results

Home teams: 8-7-1 ATS and 8-8 SU last week (99-123-2 ATS this season, 111-112-1 SU)

Favorites: 8-7-1 ATS and 12-4 SU last week (104-116-2 ATS this season, 138-83-1 SU)

Unders: 10-6 last week (121-98-3 this season)

Best teams ATS: Green Bay and Dallas (11-3)

Worst teams ATS: New York Jets, Chicago and Jacksonville (4-10)

Best over teams: Minnesota, Indianapolis and New York Jets (all 8-6)

Best under teams: Jacksonville and Denver (3-11)

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7.5), Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET

  • Cleveland has not been a touchdown underdog all season.

  • Cleveland is 6-14 ATS in its past 20 road games.

  • Green Bay is 11-3 ATS, tied with Dallas for the best mark in the NFL, including 6-0 ATS at home.

  • Green Bay is 31-15 ATS under Matt LaFleur but only 5-6 ATS when laying at least 7.5 points.

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1), Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET

  • Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS on the road this season with five straight covers.

  • Arizona has lost three straight home games, all as a favorite.

  • Arizona is 4-9 ATS as a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Both teams are 9-5 ATS this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Tampa Bay is the first double-digit favorite following a shutout loss since 2016 New England in Week 5 after Tom Brady returned from suspension. New England covered the 10.5-point spread at Cleveland that week. That is the only time in the past 40 seasons a team has been a double-digit road favorite following a shutout loss.

  • This is the eighth time Tampa Bay is a double-digit favorite, tied for the 2nd-most by any team since 2000. Only 2007 New England (11) had more games as a double-digit favorite in that span. ESPN's Football Power Index also projects Tampa Bay as a double-digit favorite in each of its past two games. It's the ninth time Tampa Bay has been a double-digit favorite since signing Brady. It had happened eight times in franchise history before his arrival.

  • Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite, though it lost outright on Sunday night in that spot.

  • Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its past four games, all since Cam Newton became the starter.

  • Newton has been a double-digit underdog three times in his career entering this week, including the playoffs. The only time he was a double-digit home underdog was in his first career home start in Week 2 of 2011 (lost by 7 as 10-point home underdog against Green Bay).

  • Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its past five home games.

  • Carolina is 18-9 ATS all time as a double-digit underdog.

  • The under is 14-2 in Brady starts as a double-digit road favorite since returning from injury in 2009.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • There has not been a double-digit spread in this rivalry since 1980 (Philadelphia was favored by 10). The 9.5 points would be the largest line in this series since 1999 (New York was favored and won by 1).

  • New York has covered all three meetings since Joe Judge took over in 2020, earning outright wins as an underdog in the past two meetings, including in Week 12 this season. The under hit in all three meetings and in five of the past six.

  • New York is 0-3 ATS in its past three games and 0-3 ATS in its past three road games.

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Houston has failed to cover its past three home games.

  • Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS this season against teams with losing records.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a favorite.

  • Justin Herbert has never been more than a 9.5-point favorite and he has never been more than a 6.5-point road favorite.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Detroit is 9-5 ATS and 8-2 ATS when getting at least 4 points. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS at home this season.

  • Atlanta is 7-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.

  • Atlanta has not been favored by at least five points in any game in the past two seasons.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Baltimore is 13-1 ATS as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, including 4-0 ATS in that span when Jackson does not start. Baltimore is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Baltimore is 11-1-1 ATS since 2019 when the line is between +3 and -3, including 5-1 ATS this season.

  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS after a loss this season.

  • Baltimore had been favored in each of the previous eight meetings. The last time Cincinnati was favored over Baltimore was Week 1 of 2017 (Baltimore shut out Cincinnati 20-0 as a 3-point underdog).

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Minnesota is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog under Mike Zimmer.

  • Minnesota has topped the over total in four of its past five games (under last week).

  • Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a favorite.

  • Matthew Stafford is 12-18-2 ATS in his career as a road favorite (2-4 ATS with Los Angeles).

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (PK), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Both teams are 4-10 ATS, the two worst marks in the league.

  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its past five games.

  • New York opened as a favorite for the first time all season. New York is one of two teams that has never been favored this season (Detroit). New York was favored one time last season (lost vs Denver). Since 2018, New York is 3-6 outright and 2-7 ATS as a favorite.

  • New York is 0-4 ATS in its past four home games.

  • Jacksonville games are 11-3 on the under this season.

  • New York games have gone over the total in eight of its past 11 games.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Buffalo is 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS on the road with Josh Allen. Allen is 10-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.

  • Bill Belichick is 36-7 outright in his career against Buffalo as New England's head coach (26-15-2 ATS).

  • New England is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games (seven-game cover streak ended last week).

  • New England has covered five straight games as a favorite.

  • Buffalo is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

  • Chicago is 2-9 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Chicago has failed to cover five straight games.

  • Chicago is 8-15 ATS on the road over the past three seasons.

  • Chicago is 1-8 ATS in conference games this season.

  • The under is 3-10-1 in Seattle games this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Pittsburgh opened as a double-digit underdog. Ben Roethlisberger been a double-digit underdog once in his career (Week 14 of 2007 at New England, lost by 21). Roethlisberger has not been at least a 7-point underdog since the 2015 divisional playoffs at Denver.

  • Mike Tomlin is 43-25-3 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 17-6-1 ATS since 2018.

  • Kansas City has won seven straight and covered five straight.

  • Patrick Mahomes has started two games in his career with a total of 45 or below (last was in 2019; other time was his first career start in 2017).

  • Kansas City enters this week as the +475 favorite to win the pro football championship at Caesars Sportsbook, the first time it was the favorite since entering Week 5.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (PK), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Las Vegas has covered six of the past seven meetings.

  • Denver is 16-9 ATS after a loss under Vic Fangio with three straight covers.

  • Drew Lock is 11-7 ATS in his career.

  • Denver games are 28-18 to the under with Fangio as coach, including 11-3 this season.

  • Las Vegas opened as a favorite but the line has since moved. Las Vegas is 1-9 ATS in its past nine games as a favorite, including 1-5 ATS this season.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-11), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

  • Dallas is 11-3 ATS, tied with Green Bay for the best mark in the league. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in conference games and 8-2 ATS as a favorite.

  • Washington is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its past five games as an underdog.

  • Washington is 1-0-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, pushing last week against Philadelphia and upsetting Tampa Bay outright in Week 10.

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-3), Monday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN

  • Since 2018, New Orleans is 14-5 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Miami has won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS in that span.

  • Miami is 19-12-1 ATS as an underdog under Brian Flores, including 19-8-1 ATS in its past 28 games.

  • New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in prime time games in the past two seasons (1-3 ATS this season, 4-0 to the under).