NFL divisional betting nuggets: Jimmy Garoppolo is the NFL's best underdog

Jimmy Garoppolo has the best playoff ATS record among quarterbacks since 1966. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Favorites bucked recent trends in the wild-card round last week. After going 3-15 ATS in the previous four wild-card weekends, favorites went 5-1 ATS last week. The only upset came from the San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) over the Dallas Cowboys.

That improved Jimmy Garoppolo to 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. He has the highest outright winning percentage as an underdog by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

Garoppolo and the 49ers are underdogs again this week against Green Bay. The Packers were 12-5 ATS during the regular season, the second-best mark behind only the Cowboys.

The Packers and Tennessee Titans hope to continue the recent trend of teams coming off a bye covering in the divisional round. Since 2018, those teams have gone 9-1 outright and 7-3 ATS.

However, the lines imply one of the most competitive divisional rounds ever. As of Thursday, all four game lines are six points or lower. That has not happened in the divisional round since 1971.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5), Saturday at 4:30 ET

  • This is the first time a No. 1 seed has not been favored by at least five points in its divisional-round matchup since 2017, when Philadelphia was a 2.5-point underdog.

  • Mike Vrabel is 8-0 outright and ATS with at least nine days between midseason games.

  • Joe Burrow is 9-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points (5-5-1 outright).

  • Tennessee is 6-3 ATS at home this season with the under going 7-2.

  • Cincinnati has covered all four meetings since 2011.

  • Cincinnati is 0-10 straight up as an underdog in the playoffs (3-7 ATS). Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, Cincinnati is one of three franchises without a playoff victory outright as a betting underdog alongside Detroit (0-9) and Houston (0-5).

  • Cincinnati has won and covered four straight games, including two wins as an underdog in that span.

  • Teams coming off a bye week are 9-1 outright and 7-3 ATS in the divisional round since 2018.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6), Saturday at 8:15 ET

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog in his career. The 13-5 outright record is the best of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era, minimum 3 starts.

  • San Francisco is 26-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 17-10 ATS as a road underdog.

  • Aaron Rodgers is 4-7-1 ATS in his career against San Francisco, including 0-2-1 ATS in the playoffs (0-3 SU). Rodgers has covered each of the past two meetings, both since 2020.

  • Green Bay is 12-5 ATS this season, the second-best mark in the league (Dallas: 13-5 ATS). Green Bay is 7-1 ATS at home, and 6-1 ATS as a home favorite.

  • Overs are 14-6 in Aaron Rodgers playoff games, including 6-0 since 2016 and 4-0 with Matt LaFleur.

  • Green Bay is 2-0 ATS at home in the divisional round under Matt LaFleur.

  • Teams coming off a bye week are 9-1 outright and 7-3 ATS in the divisional round since 2018.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), Sunday at 3 ET

  • Los Angeles is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season, including beating Tampa Bay as a one-point home underdog this season.

  • Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its past eight home games.

  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in playoff games since signing Tom Brady (covered past four).

  • Tom Brady is 58-30-3 ATS in his career when the line is between +3 and -3. Sean McVay is 21-15-1 ATS in that spot, including 17-8 ATS since 2019.

  • Sean McVay is 8-4-1 ATS in games on short rest, including 8-2-1 ATS since 2018.

  • Since 2010, Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Tampa Bay (2-1 ATS under McVay). The past five meetings went over the total.

  • Teams to beat Tom Brady in the regular season are 6-5 outright and ATS against Brady when they meet in the playoffs (0-2 outright and ATS since Brady joined Tampa Bay).

  • Tom Brady is 25-20-1 ATS in his postseason career, including 18-17-1 ATS as a favorite.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5), Sunday at 6:30 ET

  • Kansas City (+175) and Buffalo (+225) are the top two favorites in the AFC.

  • Home favorites of 1 to 2.5 points are 17-27-1 ATS in the postseason in the Super Bowl era, including 5-16-1 ATS since 2005 and 3-11-1 ATS since 2010.

  • Patrick Mahomes has been under a three-point favorite at home only once in his career (-2.5 vs Dallas in Week 11 this season; won 19-9). That is the only time this season that Kansas City has not been favored by at least a field goal. Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS in his career when he is not favored by at least 3.5 points, and he is 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 1-3 points.

  • Kansas City has covered five straight home games.

  • Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games.

  • Kansas City's past six games have gone over the total.

  • Josh Allen is 19-11-1 ATS in his career on the road (10-6-1 ATS as road underdog).

  • Buffalo road games are 12-4-1 to the over in the past two seasons.

  • Buffalo is 6-2 ATS and 5-3 outright in its past eight games as an underdog since Week 9 of last season. All eight games went over the total.

  • Josh Allen is 14-8-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3. Patrick Mahomes is 10-4-1 ATS in that spot.

  • Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games against teams with winning records (overs are 6-1).