Stanley Cup Final Game 6: Betting tips and picks for Colorado Avalanche-Tampa Bay Lightning

Will Steven Stamkos help the Tampa Bay Lightning force a Game 7? Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images

The Stanley Cup will be in the house at Amalie Arena on Sunday night, but the host Tampa Bay Lightning will do everything they can to prevent the Colorado Avalanche from clinching on their ice. After a late goal from Ondrej Palat in the third period, the Lightning held on for a 3-2 win in Game 5.

As always, you can catch the action live on ABC, ESPN+ and the ESPN App at 8 p.m. ET, with ESPN+ offering a live stats feed and bonus camera angles.

All odds below courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Stanley Cup Final Game 6: Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

Puck line: Colorado -1.5
Money line: Colorado (-115), Tampa Bay (-105)
Total: 6

Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Avalanche vs. Lightning UNDER 6 goals (-130)

The last two games of the series hit the under with a total of five goals. As long as the number stays at six goals, I think taking the under here is the obvious play. The Lightning are getting to their game, and their game is defense. If the Avalanche are going to win the Stanley Cup tonight, it's going to be through a grind-it-out, low-scoring road game. The under is 10-4-2 in Games 6 and 7 of the Stanley Cup since 2005. The volume of the action is still on the over: BetMGM reports that 58% of the tickets and 61% of the handle are on the over for Game 5, which could mean sharp money is being wagered on the under, given how those odds continue to increase.

Wyshynski: Mikko Rantanen to score an assist (-125)

Game 5 broke a four-game assist streak for Rantanen in the Stanley Cup Final. He's fourth in the playoffs with 20 helpers. Fansure notes that Rantanen has an assist in 11 of his 12 games against top-10 scoring defenses. I like this play because Colorado coach Jared Bednar hasn't hesitated to reunite Rantanen with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, a line that has terrorized the NHL for the better part of four seasons. Whether he's with them or with Nazem Kadri, there's a strong possibility to score at 5-on-5. Combine that with his power-play time, and there's a lot of potential at a price that's slightly depressed after Game 5.

Sachin Dave Chandan, ESPN betting editor: Nathan MacKinnon or Steven Stamkos to score first +330

As seen below, both of these guys lead their respective forward groups in shots on goal per game as well as times being the first scorer this postseason. In fact, MacKinnon has been the leading shooter all series, even though he was held without a goal in Game 5.

First scorer list

Shots on goal