For the first time in his Hall of Fame career, Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog. Rodgers had gone 234 straight starts to begin his career without being a double-digit underdog, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs).
Early in the week, it appeared that Rodgers and Tom Brady would be the underdogs in the same week for just the fourth time ever. However, Wednesday night, the line flipped where Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now favored over Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens. Brady is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog, while Jackson is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Two coaches who have had great success as underdogs are Brian Daboll and Kliff Kingsbury. Daboll has joined Bill Cowher as the only coaches in the Super Bowl era to win each of their first five career games as underdog. Meanwhile, Kingsbury's Arizona Cardinals have won eight straight games outright as a road underdog, the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Both look to continue those streaks this week.
The 5-2 New York Jets are also underdogs for the 21st straight matchup against the New England Patriots. The Jets can be the first team to go over their win total (5.5) with a victory on Sunday. The Jets are the first team in the Super Bowl era with a winning percentage of at least .700 in Week 8 or later to be a home underdog against a team with a losing record while starting its primary quarterback.
In general, underdogs have covered at a 59% rate this season, the highest over or under percentage through seven weeks since 1994. Teams that are underdogs by at least four points are 21-34-1 outright, the best winning percentage through Week 7 since 1983.
Underdogs: 59-44-3 (.573)
Unders: 63-44-1 (.589)
Best teams ATS: Falcons and Giants (6-1)
Worst teams ATS: Buccaneers, Packers, Saints, Jaguars, Broncos and Panthers (all 2-5)
Best over teams: Raiders (4-1-1) followed by Browns and Saints (both 5-2)
Best under teams: Colts, Buccaneers and Broncos (all 5-2)
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday at 8:15 ET
Tom Brady is playing his 187th home game including playoffs. This would be just the 13th time he will be a home underdog, and the first since 2020. He is 11-1 ATS and 9-3 outright as a home underdog. The only ATS loss came back in 2005 (+4 vs Indianapolis, lost by 19). Over the past 15 seasons, Brady is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 outright as a home dog. His 11-1 ATS record as a home underdog is second-best of any QB in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games in that role (Ken Stabler: 9-0-1 ATS).
Tom Brady is 13-2 ATS after losing as at least a seven-point favorite in his previous game. However, last week's loss in Carolina is one of the two ATS losses. Tampa Bay enters this week as the first team since 2017 Kansas City to lose two straight games, both as at least a nine-point favorite.
Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS at home this season, and it is 0-3 ATS after an outright loss.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its past five games. That matches the longest single-season regular-season ATS losing streak of Brady's career (five straight in 2002). Brady lost nine straight games ATS spanning the 2007-09 seasons including playoffs.
Lamar Jackson is 17-8-2 ATS in his career on the road.
Lamar Jackson is 8-1-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.
Tom Brady is 0-3 ATS on Thursday Night Football games with Tampa Bay, all as a favorite.
Tampa Bay games are 6-1 to the under, tied with Denver and Indianapolis for the highest under percentage in the league.
Thursday night unders are 5-2 this season and 30-20 over the last four seasons. Prime-time game unders are 14-8 this season and 102-74-3 over the last four seasons (.580).
Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (London)
Favorites are 0-2 ATS in London games this season (18-14 ATS all-time).
Jacksonville has lost six straight games outright as a favorite. That is tied for the seventh-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Jacksonville is favored in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 6-9 of 2012. Jacksonville is 2-11 outright and ATS in its past 13 games as a favorite.
Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in its past four games.
Denver games are 6-1 to the under, tied with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis for the highest under percentage in the league. Denver games have gone under by an average of 12.6 points per game, the highest margin in the league.
New England Patriots (-1.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET
This would be the 21st consecutive meeting in which New England is favored over New York, the longest active streak in the league. During New England's 20-game favorite streak, the line has never been shorter than 2.5.
New York (5-2) can go over its win total (5.5) with a victory. It would be the earliest a team has clinched a win total since 2013 according to SportsOddsHistory.com (Kansas City clinched over 7.5 wins in Week 8).
New York is the sixth team in the Super Bowl era with a winning percentage of at least .700 in Week 8 or later to be a home underdog against a team with a losing record. Each of the previous five instances, those teams were starting their backup quarterbacks.
New York has covered four straight games for the first time since 2017. New York has not covered five straight games in a single season since 2010. Its current four-game streak of winning and covering is its longest streak since 2010.
New York is 5-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Robert Saleh.
New York is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
New England has covered three straight meetings and seven of the past nine meetings.
New England is 12-3 ATS after losing the previous game as at least a seven-point favorite under Bill Belichick.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
Miami is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. Detroit is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.
Detroit is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog under Dan Campbell with five straight covers.
Detroit is 2-5 ATS under Dan Campbell when it is not at least a four-point underdog (12-4 ATS when getting at least four points).
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Atlanta has been an underdog in nine straight games entering this week, the second-longest active streak in the league. This would be the second time under Arthur Smith that Atlanta is at least a four-point favorite, the first since Week 16 last season when they won by four as 7.5-point favorites vs Detroit.
Atlanta failed to cover last week for the first time all season. Atlanta is now 6-1 ATS this season, tied with the New York Giants for the best mark in the league. Atlanta is also 3-0 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
Atlanta is 9-3 ATS against Carolina since 2016.
Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its past six road games and 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games overall.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Dallas has covered three straight home games. All four Dallas home games have gone under the total.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, Dallas is 15-3 ATS in conference games, while Chicago is 5-12 ATS.
All seven meetings since 2007 have gone over the total.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 ET
Over the past five seasons, Las Vegas is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite including 0-6 ATS in its last six games. Derek Carr is 4-11-1 ATS in his career as a road favorite including each of the aforementioned games.
Las Vegas games are 4-1-1 to the over, the highest over percentage in the league. Las Vegas has gone over the total in four straight games and covered three straight games.
New Orleans has gone over the total in four straight games. Its games go over the total by an average of 10.4 points per game this season, highest in the league.
New Orleans is 0-4 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.
Dennis Allen is 16-27 ATS in his career.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Each of the past eight times Arizona was a road underdog, it won the game outright (excluding playoffs). That is the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Arizona is up 13.51 units on the moneyline in that span.
Arizona is 10-2 ATS on the road and 9-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
Minnesota has covered all six meetings since 2011. Last season, Arizona won by one point as 3.5-point home favorites.
Minnesota is 5-1 outright but just 2-4 ATS this season including 1-4 ATS in its past five games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-11), Sunday at 1 ET
This is the fourth straight game Pittsburgh has been at least a seven-point underdog, the team's longest such streak since 1969. It ties Pittsburgh's longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
Philadelphia is 5-0-1 ATS as a home favorite under Nick Sirianni, including 3-0 ATS this season.
All three Kenny Pickett starts have gone under the total (Pittsburgh: 2-1 ATS).
Mike Tomlin is 48-29-4 ATS as an underdog including playoffs, but he is just 1-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
This is the 19th meeting between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in the Super Bowl era, and it is the first time either team has been at least an eight-point favorite.
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 4:05 ET
Houston is 16-6 ATS in the past 22 meetings with three straight covers.
Tennessee has covered four straight games.
Houston has covered four straight division games and eight of its past 10.
Davis Mills has been at least a three-point underdog in each of his 17 career starts entering this week.
Houston has been an underdog in 12 straight games entering this week, the longest active streak in the league.
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday at 4:25 ET
Kyle Shanahan is 9-3 ATS against Sean McVay including playoffs, with six straight covers.
Sean McVay is 1-4 ATS as a home underdog with an average cover margin of -12.9 points per game.
Los Angeles games are 5-1 to the under this season, with four straight unders.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET
New York is 6-1 ATS, tied with Atlanta for the best ATS record this season.
Brian Daboll is 5-0 outright in his career as an underdog. That is tied for the longest winning streak as an underdog to begin a career by any coach in the Super Bowl era.
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET
Indianapolis is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season (1-2-1 outright).
Quarterbacks making their first career starts are 8-12 ATS as favorites since 2010. They are 6-11 ATS overall since the start of last season. (These notes exclude when two quarterbacks make their first career starts against each other.)
Indianapolis games are 6-1 to the under, tied with Tampa Bay and Denver for the highest under percentage in the league. 11 of Indianapolis' past 12 games have gone under the total.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET
Aaron Rodgers has never been more than an 8.5-point underdog in his career. His 234 career starts (regular season and playoffs) are the most by any QB to never be a double-digit underdog in the Super Bowl era. It is also the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its past four games, matching the longest ATS losing streak of Aaron Rodgers' career.
Green Bay started 10-0 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur, but it is now 0-2 ATS in its previous two games after a loss.
Matt LaFleur is 10-3 ATS as an underdog.
Josh Allen is 7-2-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Allen is 33-18-4 ATS in all regular-season games since his second season (2019).
Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS and has the largest average cover margin in the league this season (9.92 PPG). Green Bay is 2-5 ATS and has the worst average cover margin in the league this season (-7.9 PPG).
Buffalo is 8-1-1 ATS vs nonconference opponents since 2020.
Prime-time game unders are 14-8 this season and 102-74-3 over the last four seasons (.580).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 ET
Cincinnati has covered five straight games for the first time since 2019. It has not covered in six straight games since 1993.
All four Cleveland home games have gone over the total.
Cincinnati is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 meetings.
Cincinnati has lost 12 straight road prime-time games. However, it has gone 5-7 ATS in those games (2-0 ATS since drafting Joe Burrow).
Prime-time game unders are 14-8 this season and 102-74-3 over the last four seasons (.580).