NFL Week 11 betting tips: Five props that pop

Rooting for an under is really no fun. But receiving additional confirmation on an unpopular projection I made about TB12 over the summer -- that was validating. It was, admittedly, offset by Greg Dulcich's lone catch. I'm still warm on the idea of a bounce-back for the rookie TE, particularly with Jerry Jeudy hampered in Week 11. Betting on the Broncos, though, that hasn't paid off.

Three of my five props hit in Week 10. Let's push for perfection this go-around. Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm here to help you secure the bag in fantasy and at the books.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 48.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: Dak Prescott OVER 250.5 passing yards (-123)

Did it take an extra quarter to put Prescott over this line for the first time all season last week? Yes. Are the Cowboys enamored with the run? Yes. Will Ezekiel Elliott's return change that? No.

Yet, Dak remains a top-10 play in Week 11. Here's why ...

Vegas is projecting this to be both a close (1.5-point spread) and high-scoring contest (48.5 points). QBs attached to games opening with an over/under above 47 have averaged more than 36 pass attempts per outing, which is 10% more than in games projected under 47 points (32.8 passes/game). Additionally, this matchup features two of the five fastest-paced teams. That signals a solid back-and-forth and, thus, more aerial action for Dak. Prescott has managed over 251 passing yards in 73% of his games when throwing the ball 35-plus times.

Admittedly, the Vikings have improved at gaining pressure over recent weeks. However, the secondary remains leaky, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. CeeDee Lamb (WR4) can pad Dak's stats, and even Michael Gallup is worthy of flex consideration given the matchup. A few big plays from his pass-catchers and Prescott might not need 35 pass attempts to hit the over. That's even more possible considering Minnesota has allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt this season (7.9).

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Washington Commanders (-3, 40.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston

Pick: Dameon Pierce OVER 98.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)

Pierce has been a revelation for fantasy managers. He has consistently produced regardless of game flow, topping double-digit fantasy points for seven consecutive weeks. The rookie has recorded over 90 rushing yards or scored in every game since Week 3. That's because he's getting fed. Pierce currently ranks fifth in touches per game, behind only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon. And it's not just totes, either. Pierce is legit involved in the passing game. In fact, he and Barkley are the only players averaging 18 carries as well as three targets per outing. Volume is always king in fantasy, and Pierce has been an absolute prince.

The matchup versus the Commanders should work in his favor Sunday. Washington's D-line knows how to get after opposing QBs, recording the third-most sacks (32) on the season. Pressuring Davis Mills could lead to some cheap checkdowns for Pierce, who has managed 60 evaded tackles (RB4) thus far into 2022. Additionally, the Texans present the 12th-highest advantage (4 yards) versus Washington's run defense, increasing the odds that Pierce garners enough volume and efficiency to hit 100 scrimmage yards this weekend.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4, 40.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

Pick: Joe Mixon OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-109)

Fantasy managers have notoriously short memories, but there's no forgetting Mixon's five-TD effort in Week 9. While I don't expect another historic outing, I do anticipate a top-five finish from the Bengals' RB1 this Sunday.

Mixon's yards per carry after contact spiked 58.3% during Weeks 5-10, improving from 1.27 YPC (Weeks 1-4) to 2.01 YPC. That bodes well for a solid Week 11 effort, as he's in rhythm and rested coming off a bye. Given that the Bengals are 4-point favorites, game script should also work in Mixon's favor.

Teams have recorded a 47.1% run rate when leading (33.2% when trailing) this season. Mixon has garnered 68% of Cincy's carries (fifth-highest rate). Assuming the Bengals stay ahead, Mixon should, therefore, notch between 17 and 20 carries. All Mixon has to do is post his career yards-per-carry average (4.1) to clear the above rushing line. T.J. Watt's return certainly increases the level of difficulty. However, Mixon has yet to record fewer than 82 rushing yards in any meeting opposite Pittsburgh during the Joe Burrow era.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, 39)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans

Pick: Chris Olave OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-142)

Olave is coming off a dud in what was supposed to be a smash spot last Sunday. Jarvis Landry's return muddied the Saints' already murky passing attack. Still, the rookie is in line for a top-20 FF rebound in Week 11.

The Rams struggle to limit downfield conversions, allowing the most yards per deep completion as well as the fourth-highest deep TD rate. That's good for a player like Olave, who has posted the second-most air yards (1,129) among WRs on the season. To further contextualize that stat, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams are the other three wideouts to have also recorded 1,000 air yards in 2022. That's pretty good company for the rookie.

Also, as uninspiring as Andy Dalton has been, the Rifle has taken at least five deep shots in six of seven games this season. Olave could be 75% of the way to clearing the above line if he connects on just two of those deep looks. This game does not project to be pretty, but the Saints' young alpha should make it productive.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

Pick: Parris Campbell OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-137)

Campbell was Matt Ryan's most productive target, posting a 7-76-1 stat line in the signal-caller's return under center last Sunday. The former Buckeye notably tied Michael Pittman for a game-high nine looks in the Colts' upset over the Raiders. Ryan has been locked in on Campbell, targeting the team's slot receiver 32 times over the QB's past three starts. That's a trend that figures to continue in Week 11, as the Colts are 6.5-point underdogs versus the Eagles.

Philly boasts one of the most shutdown secondaries in the league. However, with Avonte Maddox on IR, the Eagles allowed eight of 11 receptions to the slot (a season-high 72%) last week. That potential vulnerability figures to be tested by the Ryan-Campbell connection. The duo has successfully linked up 27 times in the slot. Meanwhile, no other Colt has drawn more than 19 targets in the slot.

Campbell has volume and opportunity on his side. Fantasy managers can expect high-end flex (WR28) numbers from the Ohio State product, even in a seemingly difficult matchup.

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