As we enter December, we have a pretty good feel as to who the good "real life" teams are. Not the best teams to bet on, but the teams with actual postseason upside.
The nice part? History suggests those teams are worth backing down the stretch.
In each of the past four seasons, eventual playoff teams covered over 55% of the time in Weeks 13-18 (59% last season). Sportsbooks are inherently conservative, and that makes sense, but with 12 weeks of data under our belts, we can feel better about our ability to label teams as elite and put our hard-earned dollars behind them. There's still plenty of time for the playoff picture to change, but if you're considering this trend when building your Week 13 card, any team with at least eight wins (Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills, Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys) deserves your attention.
As for other things that deserve your attention, here are the league-wide betting trends and a tidbit for each and every team:
Thursday 8:15 p.m.
Buffalo Bills (-5, 43.5) at New England Patriots
Bills ATS: 4--2
What we know about the Bills: The Bills haven't covered a game since their 24-20 win at Arrowhead in Week 6 (2.5-point favorite).
Patriots ATS: 6-4-1
What we know about the Patriots: Unders are 4-2 this season in games that the Patriots cover.
Sunday 1:00 p.m.
Browns ATS: 5-5-1
What we know about the Browns: The Browns are 2-1 ATS when a game comes in under the total this season (2-4-1 when over tickets cash).
Texans ATS: 4-6-1
What we know about the Texans: The Texans have dropped three straight ATS, and all three of those games have gone under the total.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 44.5)
Broncos ATS: 3-8
What we know about the Broncos: The Broncos underwhelmed total bettors last season with 12 unders, and it's getting worse. They are the first team with 10 unders in their first 11 games since both the Dolphins and Jaguars did it in 2011.
Ravens ATS: 4-6-1
What we know about the Ravens: The Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS at home this season (4-2 ATS on the road).
Green Bay Packers (-3, 42.5) at Chicago Bears
Packers ATS: 4-8
What we know about the Packers: The Packers have covered seven straight against the Bears (under tickets have cashed in four of those games).
Bears ATS: 4-7-1
What we know about the Bears: Two of Chicago's past three covers against Green Bay have come at Soldier Field. That's the good news. The bad news? That stat covers the past 13 matchups in the league's oldest rivalry.
Jaguars ATS: 4-7
What we know about the Jaguars: Entering last week, four straight Jacksonville games went under the total thanks in large part to the production of Travis Etienne Jr.. He got hurt early in Week 12 and the streak ended (over the total by 12 points).
Lions ATS: 7-4
What we know about the Lions: Game of runs: The Lions covered their first three games before dropping four straight heading into November. Last month? A perfect 4-0 ATS.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 45.5)
Jets ATS: 7-4
What we know about the Jets: The Mike White era opened with the first Jets game going over the total since Week 5.
Vikings ATS: 5-5-1
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikes are 1-3 ATS when the total is over 47 points, 3-2 in the games with a lower expected point total.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 44.5)
Titans ATS: 8-3
What we know about the Titans: The Titans lost to the Bengals last week in a pick'em game, their first failure to cover since Week 2 in Buffalo.
Eagles ATS: 6-5
What we know about the Eagles: The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their past six games after a 2-3 start to the season.
Steelers ATS: 5-5-1
What we know about the Steelers: It doesn't have to be pretty; that's three overs in Pittsburgh's past four games.
Falcons ATS: 7-5
What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons are just 1-5 ATS after opening the season with six straight covers.
Washington Commanders (-2.5, 40.5) at New York Giants
Commanders ATS: 7-4-1
What we know about the Commanders: The Commanders have covered six of seven games after failing to cover four straight from Weeks 2-5.
Giants ATS: 8-3
What we know about the Giants: Sportsbooks have a great feel for the totals in Giants games. Their loss on Thanksgiving marked the sixth straight game where the final total was within five points of the projected total.
Sunday 4:05 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 46.5)
Dolphins ATS: 6-5
What we know about the Dolphins: Miami scored 30 points in the first half in Week 12, and yet they still snapped their three-game run of overs.
49ers ATS: 6-5
What we know about the 49ers: Unders are 4-1 in 49ers home games this season, 3-3 when they play on the road.
Seattle Seahawks (-8, 41) at Los Angeles Rams
Seahawks ATS: 6-5
What we know about the Seahawks: The Seahawks are a fade in games with a lower expected total (2-4 ATS when the total is no more than 45 points) and a near must play in other spots (4-1 ATS).
Rams ATS: 2-8-1
What we know about the Rams: The worst ATS season following a Super Bowl win in the 2000s is currently a three-way tie (6-10): 2002 Patriots, 2009 Steelers and 2018 Eagles. The Rams are going to have to get hot to avoid this mark.
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 52.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Chiefs ATS: 5-6
What we know about the Chiefs: The Chiefs are looking to cover consecutive regular-season games for the first time since last December.
Bengals ATS: 8-3
What we know about the Bengals: Including the playoffs, the Bengals have covered 16 of their past 19 games.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Chargers ATS: 7-4
What we know about the Chargers: Five times this season has the winning team in a Chargers game failed to cover the spread.
Raiders ATS: 5-6
What we know about the Raiders: Do the points even matter? Six straight Raiders games have had a cover margin (final difference compared to the spread) of more than eight points.
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Colts ATS: 5-7
What we know about the Colts: Unders are 8-1 in Indy's past nine road games.
Cowboys ATS: 7-4
What we know about the Cowboys: The Cowboys failed to cover on Thanksgiving: The last time they failed to cover consecutive games was Weeks 11-12 of last season.
Monday 8:15 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 39.5)
Saints ATS: 4-8
What we know about the Saints: New Orleans has covered each of its past four games in Tampa Bay, most recently a 9-0 win in Week 15 of last season as an 11.5-point underdog.
Buccaneers ATS: 3-7-1
What we know about the Buccaneers: The Bucs snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak against the Saints when they covered the Week 2 matchup (20-10 win as a 2.5-point favorite).