2023 NBA playoffs: Odds, picks, betting tips for Monday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Monday's games

The series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat hangs in the balance based on Giannis Antetokounmpo's back. Listed as questionable for Monday night's matchup in Florida, the MVP candidate hasn't played since exiting Game 1 after just 11 minutes of run.

The point spread currently favors the Bucks by a touchdown, but we saw a similar line tighten to just two points in favor of Milwaukee on Saturday once it was confirmed Antetokounmpo wouldn't play. Which is to say, it still reads like the superstar is a game-time decision. If he's not able to go, it's noteworthy that Jrue Holiday's usage rate spikes a team-high 5.5% and both he and Khris Middleton leap by more than five fantasy points per 36 minutes in such lineups. Even Grayson Allen becomes a viable play if Antetokounmpo sits given that he has also seen sizable surges in usage and production with his star teammate off the court.

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Memphis Grizzlies in a pivotal Game 4 that reads like a must-win for the young Grizzlies. The good news is that Ja Morant isn't even listed on the injury report after producing nearly 80 fantasy points in an offensive opus in a Game 3 loss. The likely return of Dillon Brooks could signal fewer shots to go around, yet I'm still projecting Morant for nearly 50 fantasy points using DraftKings' scoring key. With so much at stake Monday evening, allow our experts to help prepare you for this two-game slate.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down the slate

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
Game 4: 7:30 p.m. ET, Heat lead series 2-1

Records (Against the spread)
Bucks: 58-24 (42-34-6)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)

Line: Bucks (-6) Total: 216.5
BPI projection: Bucks by 4.9
Money line: Bucks (-260), Heat (+210)

Injury report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - back); Wesley Matthews, (out - calf)
Heat: Bam Adebayo, (GTD - hamstring); Jimmy Butler, (GTD - lower body); Nikola Jovic, (out - back); Tyler Herro, (out - hand); Victor Oladipo, (out - knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Bucks -5.5. No matter whether Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or not, the Bucks need to win this game and even the series. Following a loss, Milwaukee performed well during the regular season. The Bucks have a 41-34-3 record against the spread and have also covered 19 times in 39 road games. It's going to be a close game considering the circumstances for each team. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Khris Middleton over 19.5 points. It's unclear whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will play Monday or not, but either way this is a must-win game. And, either way, I expect Middleton to have a big performance. Middleton has averaged more than 20 PPG next to Giannis for years; his numbers and projections are down now because he has been recovering from injury, not because of Giannis. But, in this series, Middleton has shown that he has recovered a good bit of his scoring prowess with averages of 24.0 PPG in 31.7 MPG through the first three games. He has scored at least 23 points in two of three games, and I think he'll have to go big Monday to ensure the Bucks even the series... whether Giannis plays or not. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 28.5 points. It's playoffs time, which means that Butler has come to play. He has averaged 30.3 PPG in his past four postseason outings, including the second play-in game against the Bulls, and has scored 30 or more in three of those four games. All eyes are on Giannis, but Butler and the Heat can smell the second round right now. They are at home, and if they get this win they take a strong 3-1 lead that would be difficult for the Bucks to overcome even if Giannis plays. I expect A+ Butler as he tries to keep the pressure on and get his team to the next round. -- Snellings

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Game 4, 10 p.m. ET, Lakers series 2-1

Records (Against the spread)
Grizzlies: 51-31 (37-42-3)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)

Line: Lakers (-4.5) Total: 221
BPI projection: Lakers by 0.9
Money line: Grizzlies (+158), Lakers (-190)

Injury report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (out - Achilles); Jake LaRavia, (out - calf); Steven Adams, (out - knee)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - foot); Dennis Schroder, (GTD - foot); LeBron James, (GTD - foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Over 221 points. The Lakers clamped down on defense in Game 3 but that came after a loss. I expect a more relaxed effort and a Memphis team that will play with urgency and push the pace, hoping to score before the Lakers can set up their half-court defense. -- Doug Kezirian

Best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. over 27.5 points + rebounds. Jackson was a force on the floor in Game 1. He had 31 points and five rebounds. In Game 2, Jackson had 18 points and nine rebounds. A lackluster performance by Jackson in Game 3 led to only 13 points and five rebounds. As if that weren't bad enough, the winner of Defensive Player of the Year couldn't stop Anthony Davis. Jackson could bounce back in Game 4 and deliver the kind of performance he had in Game 1. A loss in Game 4 would be devastating for the Grizzlies. -- Moody

Best bet: Ja Morant over 43.5 total points + rebounds + assists. Morant has exploded two of the past three times he has faced the Lakers. On Feb. 28, he dropped 39 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds and in Game 3 he just popped for 45 points, 13 assists and 9 rebounds. In the middle, Morant had a pedestrian Game 1 performance, but the situation calls for him to go big again Monday night. If the Grizzlies lose Monday, they fall into a 3-1 hole that will be extremely difficult to climb out of. Thus, I'm expecting Morant to be at his best, and when he's at his best against the Lakers he doesn't just go over 43.5 PAR... he goes way over. -- Snellings

Best bet: Anthony Davis over 37.5 total points + rebounds. Davis dominated against the Grizzlies in the regular season, averaging 29.0 PPG and 20.5 RPG in his two contests against them. He had a relatively slow start to the playoff series, but bounced back for 31 points and 17 rebounds in Game 3. I expect another big outing from Davis on Monday, with the game in L.A. and the opportunity there for the Lakers to take a commanding 3-1 lead. For all the talk of Dillon Brooks poking the bear, LeBron James also knows that an active Davis is the key to the Lakers' success. I expect he and the rest of the Lakers to feed their big man and get him another big night. -- Snellings