2023 NBA Finals: Odds, picks, betting tips for Heat-Nuggets Game 3

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Game 3 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Heat-Nuggets Game 3

Game 2 of the NBA Finals was defined by a rousing comeback from the Miami Heat, as the team pulled off another upset of a sizable home favorite this postseason. Miami is positioned as a slight home underdog for Wednesday's Game 3, a spot it has become comfortable with. Denver is looking to take back command of the series in a game with a modest total that suggests a lower-scoring game is expected.

Nikola Jokic has a viable path to 100 DraftKings points as the captain in Showdown formats. It's hard to fathom fading the dynamic playmaker. Teammate Michael Porter Jr. has struggled to start the series, but I trust his shot diet will look more like Game 1's promising workload.

Bam Adebayo continues to shine as a key scoring source for the Heat. The versatile big man has lofted 39 shots from the floor through eight quarters while averaging 40 minutes in the series, confirming he's a viable building block in DFS lineups and a worthy target for prop plays. Frontcourt mate Kevin Love, meanwhile, is a worthy bargain to consider for roster construction in tournaments given his ability to build big lines in limited exposure.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Heat-Nuggets Game 3

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Game 3: 8:30 p.m. ET, series tied 1-1

Records (against the spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)

Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 214.5
Money line: Nuggets (-150), Heat (+126)

Injury report:
Nuggets: None reported
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT - hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Nuggets (-3.5), Under 214.5. I like the Nuggets to bounce back and win Game 3 with a cover. Erik Spoelstra and the Heat aren't likely to replicate the almost flawless 4th quarter that propelled them to the Game 2 upset. I expect the Nuggets to play better around Nikola Jokic, who will likely have some counters to the defense Miami threw at him on Sunday. The total has been dropping throughout this series and especially with this game in Miami, I like it to go under. Both teams are operating at a very deliberate pace and that expected shooting regression for the Heat will help as well. -- Tyler Fulghum

Best bet: Michael Porter Jr. over 14.5 points. I'm going to try this one more time after MPJ let me down in Games 1 and 2, mostly because of horrific shooting. While his 14 points and 13 rebounds were acceptable in Game 1, the 5-of-16 shooting was not. And he fully disappeared in Sunday's Game 2 with five points and six rebounds on 2-of-8 shooting. Before that he double-doubled in three of his four games against the Lakers and had been shooting it pretty well until the final two games of that series. The Nuggets need to right the ship and Jokic needs help. And it's time for MPJ to start knocking down some shots. -- Steve Alexander

Best bet: Gabe Vincent over 13.5 points. Vincent had 19 and 23 points in Games 1 and 2 and eclipsed 14 points in four of his six games against Boston. He's getting 35 minutes per game in this series and Kyle Lowry is 37 years old and is averaging only 25 minutes and 10 points in the Finals. Vincent is simply the more effective weapon and has been one of the Heat's aggressors in both games. If the Heat are going to have continued success against the Nuggets, they're going to need Vincent to keep it going. And 14 points is not a lot to ask for. Just beware that Tyler Herro (hand) might return for Game 3, but Vincent should still see plenty of point guard minutes if it happens. If Herro is out for Game 3, Vincent feels like a lock. -- Alexander