2023 NBA Finals: Odds, picks, betting tips for Heat-Nuggets Game 4

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Game 4 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Heat-Nuggets Game 4

The Denver Nuggets reclaimed home-court advantage thanks to a tandem of triple-double performances in a pivotal Game 3 earlier this week. The Miami Heat were simply overwhelmed on the glass and in the paint defensively, a trend to watch for what bodes to be an important fourth game in the series on Friday.

Speaking of dominance in the paint, Nikola Jokic collected an absurd 18 defensive rebounds in Game 3, just five fewer than Miami's entire roster. It's hard to imagine fading Jokic in DFS lineups, while his rebounding prop also seems achievable given how this matchup has unfolded. The timely shot-making from Jamal Murray also drives value, with his assist props seeming attractive given how much creation he has been asked to handle.

In yet another Finals preview we highlight the continued brilliance of Bam Adebayo. As we discussed earlier in this series, the Nuggets appear content to see Adebayo consume possession in a similar fashion to their strategy versus Anthony Davis. Simply put, there's not much stopping Adebayo from consuming shots and cleaning the boards in what continues to be a plus matchup. My model rates Jimmy Butler, just behind Jokic, as the second-best value for this contest. With their backs against the wall, the Heat's resolve will be on display.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Heat-Nuggets Game 4

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Game 4: 8:30 p.m. ET, Nuggets lead series 2-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)

Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 210.5
Money line: Nuggets (-165), Heat (+140)

Injury Report:
Nuggets: None reported
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT - Hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Jamal Murray over 7.5 assists. Murray averaged only 6.2 APG this season, far fewer than Nikola Jokic, but so far against the Heat each player has been piling on the dimes. In fact, Murray has precisely 10 assists in each game, and there is little reason to expect him to slow down in Game 4. -- Eric Karabell

Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds. The Nuggets are not a great rebounding team and Adebayo has 39 boards over the first three games of the series and 10 on the offensive end. He hauled in 17 rebounds in Game 3 so whatever adjustments Miami makes in a Game 4, moving Adebayo away from the basket will not be one of them. He should sail past double-digit rebounds. -- Karabell

Best bet: Aaron Gordon over 6.5 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. has been a disaster in this series and has hardly been involved in scoring or rebounding since Game 1. Meanwhile, Gordon has been crashing the boards and helping out offensively. He has at least six rebounds in four straight games and had seven and 10 rebounds in Games 2 and 3, respectively. While MPJ is due to break out at some point, Gordon has been the more reliable player thus far and is the second-best rebounder on the team. -- Steve Alexander

Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 19.5 points. Adebayo has been the best player on the Heat this series. He has scored 26, 21 and 22 points in each game thus far (23 PPG). Betting on Adebayo to get 20 points in a must-win Game 4 feels like easy money. -- Alexander

Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 43.5 points + rebounds. Jokic has been an absolute beast this postseason, dominating the court with 33.3 PPG and 14 PPG in the Finals. He's proven to be unstoppable, shooting an impressive 59% from the field while leading the league in total points (549), rebounds (241) and assists (182) in the playoffs. Game 3 showcased the Nuggets' urgency and energy, and I expect more of the same on Friday. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Nuggets -3.5. When Jokic and Jamal Murray are clicking, Denver is tough to beat. The duo became the first teammates in NBA history to both have a 30-point triple double in the same game on Wednesday. The Nuggets lead the NBA in offensive rating (119.3) this postseason, but really stepped up on defense in Game 3. The Heat had an average separation of 5.05 feet between themselves and the closest defender on 3-pointers, the shortest average amount of space allowed on by Denver in any game this season. The Nuggets are also 4-1 against the spread over their past five games. -- Moody

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 26.5 points. The Heat will be under immense pressure in Game 4. Butler and Adebayo must rally their supporting cast to avoid a 3-1 deficit. Butler should rise to the occasion as he did in his previous three Game 4 appearances this postseason. He averaged 37.3 points in those games and knows he needs to take over to turn the tide in Miami. -- Moody

Best bet: Caleb Martin over 1.5 3-pointers. Martin got off to a slow start this series and is still coming off the bench. But even in his struggles he was able to knock down his 3-pointers. He's made at least one in each game of the series and made two in Game 3. He has averaged 2.0 3-pointers made per game this postseason. The Heat will be looking for their role players to step up on Friday and Martin has a good opportunity. -- Andre Snellings

Best bet: Gabe Vincent over 2.5 3-pointers. Vincent had his worst game in weeks on Wednesday, managing only three points on 2-for-10 shooting from the field in Game 3. He seemed to be especially affected by three quick foul calls that forced him to sit most of the second quarter. However, Vincent had nine 3-pointers in the first two games of the series and averaged 3.1 3PG over his past eight games leading up to Game 3. He is primed to bounce-back Friday night. -- Snellings