After Week 1 featured three of the top MVP favorites all losing, Week 2 held closer to form. Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen all won last week, and now Tagovailoa is tied with Patrick Mahomes on top of the MVP odds.
Allen was one of the biggest risers, moving from +1200 to +750 to win MVP. On the other hand, Joe Burrow's odds crashed after Week 2. After entering the season at +700, Burrow moved to +850 last week and now sits at +2000 as his status is in doubt for the Cincinnati Bengals' Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. This week, six players enter the week at +1000 or shorter odds, and all six are big favorites to earn wins this week.
Patrick Mahomes: +550 (last week: +600)
Week 3 matchup: vs. Chicago Bears
While Mahomes is the MVP co-favorite, his numbers have not stacked up to those in previous seasons through two weeks. His 65.9 Total QBR, 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions are all the worst in his career through two weeks. He ranks 10th in Total QBR and ninth in passing yards. However, the Bears offer a good opportunity for Mahomes to improve his numbers, as they are allowing the second-most yards per attempt in the NFL this season. The Chiefs also have the highest team total of the week at 30.5 and are the second-biggest favorites. If Mahomes' odds can shorten after an ugly 17-9 win over the Jaguars, they are likely to do so again after a potential blowout win over the Bears.
Tua Tagovailoa: +550 (last week: +650)
Week 3 matchup: vs. Denver Broncos
Tagovailoa may be playing at the highest level of any quarterback in the NFL through two weeks. His 9.5 yards per attempt are most in the NFL, and the gap between first and second is larger than the gap between second and 14th. He also leads the NFL in passing yards. The Broncos are known for a strong defense, but through two weeks against Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell, they rank seventh worst in QBR allowed, seventh worst in yards per attempt, and fourth worst in completion percentage. With Miami laying nearly a touchdown and Tagovailoa's stats already rating out so well, there's a good chance Tagovailoa is the outright favorite next week.
Josh Allen: +750 (last week: +1200)
Week 3 matchup: at Washington Commanders
After a slow Week 1 against the Jets, Allen's MVP odds are right back where they were entering the season following a blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Allen's raw numbers still aren't great after throwing three interceptions in Week 1, as he ranks 13th in Total QBR and 20th in yards per attempt. However, he leads the NFL in completion percentage at 76.9% with a +8.8% completion percentage over expected. The Commanders pass defense has been stingy so far this season, but if Allen passes this test, it sets up a marquee matchup against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins next week in Buffalo.
Jalen Hurts: +900 (last week: +1000)
Week 3 matchup: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite a 2-0 record, Hurts' and the Eagles' numbers have not stood out this season. The Eagles have dropped three spots in ESPN Analytics' team rankings since the season began, falling behind the Cowboys. With 14 of the last 18 MVPs getting No. 1 seeds, the Cowboys' early-season dominance is a problem for Hurts. Plus, Hurts ranks just 26th in passing yards with only two passing touchdowns through two games.
Lamar Jackson: 10-1 (last week: 14-1)
Week 3 matchup: vs. Indianapolis Colts
After upsetting the Bengals last week, Lamar Jackson has essentially taken Joe Burrow's place in the MVP race. Jackson did very little in Week 1, throwing for 169 yards with no touchdowns and an interception with a 13.5 Total QBR. Jackson bounced back against the Bengals, logging an 81.8 Total QBR thanks to greatly improved accuracy, as shown by a 74.5% completion rate and a +6.4% completion percentage over expected. ESPN Analytics has the Ravens as the favorites to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC (30%), and this week is their second-easiest game on paper this season. The Ravens have two tough division road games after this against the Browns and Steelers, which could play a big role in Jackson's chances.
Dak Prescott: 10-1 (last week: 20-1)
Week 3 matchup: at Arizona Cardinals
As the Cowboys' team rating rises, so does Dak Prescott's MVP odds. ESPN Analytics now projects the Cowboys as the best team in the NFL, with a 37% chance to get the No. 1 seed. Prescott ranks second in QBR behind Brock Purdy (22-1 odds). Now he faces the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals, who saw their defense get torched by Daniel Jones in the second half last week. Prescott's counting numbers don't match up with his efficiency, and that may continue if the Cowboys have another blowout win. If Dallas keeps winning games and Prescott's interception woes from last season don't return, he should remain near the top.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook.