Feb. 2
Every time I try to break down Super Bowl XXXVI, I find reasons to justify every scenario -- a Rams rout, a Patriots upset, a nail-biting finish that could go either way.

When that happens -- it's called over-analysis -- it is time to step back and make a common-sense call.

	Marhsall Faulk will be a huge obstacle for the Patriots on Sunday.

The Rams were the best team in football this season. Usually, the best teams win the biggest games. So the Rams will win Sunday.

The Rams might even win by 14 points, as the oddsmakers suggest. But my guess is that it would be a close 14-point game, if you catch my drift.

I guess there could be a blowout. If Tom Brady throws six interceptions, as Brett Favre did, then the Patriots will be embarrassed. I just don't see that happening.

Are the Patriots really that much worse than the Eagles? Didn't Philadelphia just give the Rams a run for their money last Sunday in St. Louis? Why shouldn't the Patriots do the same? Didn't they just do the unthinkable by whipping the best team in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers, on the Steelers' own terms and turf?

The Rams are confident, but they are not taking this game for granted. Mike Martz isn't. Just before the Rams played the Green Bay Packers, I was in his office talking to him about a myriad of things. He said then that the Patriots were the best team the Rams had played this season -- and he had beaten New England and Philadelphia on the road by scores of 24-17 and 20-17 respectively.

Yeah, this is a turf game. The Rams could literally run away with it. Still, even as the turf should help the Rams' offense, it might aid the Patriots' defense in their blitz schemes. They blitzed almost non-stop in the mid-season meeting between these two teams and seldom got to Kurt Warner. But they came close enough times. Close on grass may mean "gotcha" on turf.

Patriots mastermind Bill Belichick blitzed relentlessly because he has genuine respect for Martz's offense. Because Martz's playbook is so ever-changing -- he puts in about 45-70 new plays or variations every week -- Belichick conceded to his staff in the midseason matchup that preparing for the Rams was just about impossible.

About the only certain tendency Belichick found in the first meeting is that the Rams are unlikely to ever repeat the same play in a game. The Patriots coach even told his defenders that if they were to get beat on a certain play to just forget it and put it out of their minds because they were almost certain never to see that play again.

The obvious: Warner and Marshall Faulk represent huge obstacles for Belichick. Faulk may not run for 100 yards against the New England defense, but he should get at least 150 yards running and receiving. None of the Patriots' linebackers match up with him, so one would expect savvy strong safety Lawyer Milloy to be a key player Sunday when it comes to containing Faulk.

Still, Warner holds the key to the game. By Thursday, Martz was getting excited about Warner's recovery from a host of ills that have plagued him in the playoffs. If he gets time to throw, he will carve up the New England secondary.

But here, I'm still giving New England a chance to disrupt Warner. The Rams' protection schemes are terrific, but the offensive line has a few issues. Left tackle Orlando Pace practiced just once, and he'll play with a brace on his sprained right knee. Rod Jones wasn't the starting right tackle all year, but he has been a playoff starter and will go again despite his own mild groin injury last weekend. Left guard Tom Nutten has been hot-and-cold this year, and he has an interesting matchup against 6-foot-6 defensive tackle Richard Seymour, the Patriots' first-round draft pick.

Now, if the master Rams line coach, Jim Hanifan (who might be the closest thing to a Hall of Fame assistant coach), has his troops playing at the highest level, then Warner will be the MVP of Super Bowl XXXVI.

Let us also not forget the factor that nobody ever talks about with the Rams -- their defense. It may not have the look of a dominating group, but defensive coordinator Lovie Smith and staff have done a terrific job of building a championship unit that hustles to the ball.

Thus, there is one more invisible factor to discuss -- Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis.

Weis is a highly intelligent man and coach. You can point all you want to the Patriots only scoring two offensive TDs in the playoffs, but one (over the Raiders) was impacted by snow, and he was more responsible for protecting a lead (successfully, I might add) against the vaunted Steelers defense. Weis is creative and has done a brilliant job of setting up Brady for success.

This time, Weis has to be at his best. It's tricky. The formula that the New York Giants used against the explosive Buffalo Bills offense in Super Bowl XXV was to control the ball and clock for more than 40 minutes. I just don't think the Patriots have that kind of power, although I do expect Antowain Smith to be a major player if New England is to win Sunday. Expect to see a committed running game, especially on first down, with two tight-end sets.

But Weis must find a way to hit some big plays, and I expect him to hold nothing back. He must find enough times to keep Troy Brown away from Rams defensive MVP Aeneas Williams, who is too strong and physical for Brown to beat consistently one-on-one. Then again, the Patriots think Williams may have trouble with the smaller, quicker receivers like Brown and David Patten, so they won't shy away from Williams, either. If Weis is successful in his design, Brady must be successful in the execution. But the Rams' defense will put the heat on Brady, too, and the Patriots will have their hands full here.

Of all the matchups, the one that concerns Martz the most is obvious -- special teams. The Patriots' special teams delivered a victory in Pittsburgh. The Patriots' special teams are exceptional because many of the key, veteran starters like Brown, Lawyer Milloy, Tedy Bruschi, Tebucky Jones, Roman Phifer and Mike Vrabel are often on the field. Let us not forget one of the key free-agent signees of the New England offseason -- Pro Bowl special teams whiz Larry Izzo, formerly of the Dolphins.

Belichick will unleash every special-teams trick in the book. I would even expect an onsides kick at a most unsuspecting time.

Yes, I can find ways for the Patriots to win, or even make this a nail-biter.

I just can't ignore the bottom line: The Rams are the best team. They will win, and I suspect by about two touchdowns. So, call it 31-16, in favor of the NFC champions.