Welcome to the playoff discussion, Big 12.
With three teams ranked in the top 14 of the latest CFP Rankings, the Big 12 not only has jumped back into the playoff conversation, but the conference has a viable path for inclusion.
Sounds crazy, right? It's not. Here's how it could happen.
Flash back two weeks ago and it was hard to imagine the Big 12 even being part of the debate. In the initial CFP Rankings Oklahoma was the highest-ranked team from the conference at No. 14, with every other Power 5 conference having at least one team ranked in the top five.
But then chaos ensued this past weekend and Big 12 favorites Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oklahoma State quietly took care of their business.
Now, FiveThirtyEight's projections give those three teams a combined 23 percent chance of at least one of them to make the four-team playoff. While that doesn't sound like a lot, it's 9 percentage points higher than two weeks back, and those chances will only rise for the winner of the Oklahoma-West Virginia game this weekend.
Jake Trotter laid out the Big 12's path to the playoff beautifully. There are certainly other ways that the Big 12 could wind up in the top four, but this appears to be the most reasonable path.
1. The Big 12 champion wins out
2. Michigan or Ohio State wins the Big Ten
3. The Pac-12 champion has two or more losses
4. Louisville loses again
What are the chances each of those happens? Let's take these one by one.
The Big 12 champion wins out = 77 percent
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects that Oklahoma has a 40 percent chance to win out, West Virginia has a 28 percent chance and Oklahoma State has a 13 percent chance. If Oklahoma or Oklahoma State wins out, it would win the conference, while West Virginia would need the Cowboys to lose again (87 percent likely) to finish as the Big 12 champions.
If you are Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who are you rooting for to run the table? Despite two-loss Oklahoma's No. 9 ranking, our numbers show that the Mountaineers could have a better chance of making the playoff at 11-1 than Oklahoma would at 10-2. While that sounds obvious, the perception is that the Big 12's hopes depend on the Sooners, and that may not be the case.
According to our strength of record projections, 11-1 West Virginia should have a stronger overall résumé than 11-1 Louisville and most two-loss Pac-12 champions (Colorado may be an exception) if it wins out. Although West Virginia won't have a ton of great wins, its lone loss would be on the road against another likely top-25 team. There aren't many other teams that will be able to make that claim.
There are clearly other considerations beyond a team's résumé when selecting the playoff field, such as how each team is playing at the moment, but ESPN's strength of record metric has correlated pretty closely with the committee's rankings the past two years.
Of course, Oklahoma State remains an X factor because of its unique last-second loss to Central Michigan, but the Cowboys are the least likely of the Big 12 contenders to win out.
Michigan or Ohio State win the Big Ten = 43 percent
As Trotter laid out, the Big 12 can't afford for two Big Ten teams to make the playoff. The safest way to avoid that from occurring is for Michigan or Ohio State to win the conference.
Of course, the prospect of one of those two teams coming out of the Big Ten looked a lot better a week ago. Now, Michigan wins the Big Ten if it runs the table, including a win in Columbus on Nov. 26 and a win over the Big Ten West champion (likely Wisconsin) in the conference title game. FPI gives the Wolverines a 43 percent chance to beat Ohio State and a 34 percent chance to win the conference.
Despite a 59-point win on Saturday, Ohio State's chance to win the Big Ten actually fell from 17 percent to 9 percent this past week. That's because Michigan's loss increased the chance that the Buckeyes would end the season tied atop the Big Ten East standings with Penn State, and the Nittany Lions would win that tiebreaker. Overall, there's a 43 percent chance that either Michigan or Ohio State wins the Big Ten title.
Pac-12 champion has two or more losses = 63 percent
FPI projects there is an 80 percent chance that at least two Power 5 conferences will have a champion with multiple losses. The Big 12 is still the most likely to have a two-loss champ at 76 percent, but there is a 63 percent chance the Pac-12 has a champion with at least two losses and a 58 percent chance the Big Ten will.
Washington is the only Pac-12 team that could finish the season as a one-loss conference champion, but the Huskies still have to travel to Pullman for the Apple Cup (57 percent chance to win) and will be tested in the Pac-12 title game against Colorado, Utah or USC.
Even if the Pac-12 champion has two losses, however, there are no guarantees that the Big 12 champ would get in over that team. Colorado currently ranks ahead of Oklahoma in strength of record and would only continue to rise with a difficult remaining schedule against Washington State and Utah. Nonetheless, a few weeks ago it appeared that the Big 12 was by far the most likely conference to have a two-loss conference champion, but that gap has quickly closed.
Louisville loses again = 17 percent
Given that Louisville currently ranks fifth in the CFP rankings, it certainly appears that the Cardinals would need to be knocked off for others to rise. That may not be the case, though, as we've seen conference champions jump over nonconference champs in seasons past.
Without being able to read CFP committee members' minds, it's unclear how much a conference championship factors into the equation. If Louisville is unequivocally better than the Big 12 champion it may not matter, but it could act as a tiebreaker.
Of course, if Louisville loses to either Houston or Kentucky in the next two weeks it could open a spot for the Big 12 champion. FPI gives the Cardinals an 85 percent chance to beat Houston on Thursday and a 97 percent chance to beat Kentucky on Nov. 26.
It's important to emphasize that the scenario above is one way that the Big 12 could work its way into the top four, but there are other road maps that are certainly possible. For example, if the ACC Coastal champion pulls an upset of Clemson or Louisville in the ACC title game, how does that shake things up? The possibilities are endless, but it's clear that the Big 12 does has a few paths worth watching.
So yes, we're saying there's a chance!