Week 5 of the 2019 college football season featured some particularly dominant performances, not to mention a couple of surprisingly close calls. That, plus the continued phasing out of preseason projections and phasing in of opponent adjustments, meants quite a bit of movement at the top of this week's SP+ rankings.
Alabama still tops the list, but barely. Ohio State's continued ascent brought the Buckeyes to within 0.3 adjusted points per game of the top spot. Oklahoma's first-round knockout of Texas Tech -- the Sooners were up 17-0 after what seemed like 45 seconds -- bumped Lincoln Riley's squad from sixth to third, as well.
A couple of noteworthy teams fell a few spots, too. After needing a stop on a late two-point conversion attempt to beat UNC, defending national champion Clemson fell from third to sixth. And a week after embarrassing Michigan, Wisconsin needed defensive scores to survive an upset bid by a Northwestern team that had been inept for most of September.
Since SP+ is not a résumé rating, it is not required to reward teams for winning and punish teams for losing (just as it is not required to put Clemson in the No. 1 spot just because it is the defending champ). That said, this week's ratings are strangely symmetrical: the top 10 teams are all unbeaten, and 11 of the next 12 have one loss. It's not usually that clean a picture.
One last note: the gap among conferences is closing. I mean that in two different ways. First, though the SEC still grades out as the best conference in terms of average SP+ rating (it has a 13.0), its advantage over the Big 12 (12.6) and Big Ten (11.6) is shrinking quickly.
Second, the ACC is just having a miserable time of it at the moment. It has only two top-40 teams, and its average rating (4.0) is quite a bit closer to the AAC's (1.5) than the fourth-best of the power conferences, the Pac-12 (9.2). While the AAC would use this to bolster its "Power 6" claims, you could make the case that it's more like a Power 4 at the moment.
Note: What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Overall SP+ Rankings Team (Record) Rating Offense Defense Special Teams 1. Alabama (5-0) 31.8 46.4 (3) 14.5 (8) -0.1 (84) 2. Ohio St. (5-0) 31.5 43.8 (5) 12.3 (3) 0.0 (55) 3. Oklahoma (4-0) 28.3 51.9 (1) 23.4 (42) -0.2 (97) 4. Georgia (4-0) 26.5 40.9 (8) 14.8 (12) 0.4 (12) 5. LSU (4-0) 25.7 46.9 (2) 21.9 (35) 0.7 (1) 6. Clemson (5-0) 24.5 38.3 (15) 13.8 (5) 0.0 (68) 7. Penn St. (4-0) 24.5 40.6 (9) 16.4 (16) 0.3 (19) 8. Wisconsin (4-0) 23.3 35.5 (28) 11.7 (1) -0.5 (127) 9. Auburn (5-0) 21.7 37.9 (16) 16.5 (18) 0.3 (25) 10. Florida (5-0) 21.5 36.3 (22) 15.2 (14) 0.4 (16) 11. Washington (4-1) 21.0 39.4 (13) 18.9 (28) 0.5 (6) 12. Oregon (3-1) 19.2 32.1 (45) 12.5 (4) -0.4 (118) 13. Michigan (3-1) 18.5 31.8 (48) 13.8 (6) 0.5 (4) 14. UCF (4-1) 17.8 36.0 (25) 18.2 (26) 0.0 (69) 15. Missouri (3-1) 17.8 31.7 (49) 14.3 (7) 0.4 (11) 16. Texas (3-1) 17.6 44.0 (4) 26.8 (61) 0.5 (7) 17. Utah (4-1) 17.5 37.2 (18) 19.5 (31) -0.1 (83) 18. Oklahoma St. (4-1) 17.4 39.8 (12) 22.5 (37) 0.0 (66) 19. TCU (3-1) 17.3 33.6 (35) 16.4 (17) 0.2 (39) 20. Iowa (4-0) 17.0 34.4 (30) 17.8 (22) 0.4 (13) 21. Michigan St. (4-1) 17.0 29.2 (62) 12.0 (2) -0.1 (90) 22. Notre Dame (3-1) 16.7 36.2 (24) 19.6 (32) 0.1 (43) 23. Texas A&M (3-2) 15.6 33.3 (38) 17.8 (23) 0.2 (36) 24. Iowa St. (2-2) 15.5 33.5 (37) 17.8 (24) -0.2 (93) 25. Memphis (4-0) 15.4 29.7 (57) 14.6 (9) 0.3 (17) 26. Baylor (4-0) 14.9 32.4 (42) 17.2 (20) -0.3 (110) 27. Miss. St. (3-2) 12.6 37.3 (17) 24.3 (46) -0.4 (122) 28. USC (3-2) 11.9 36.9 (19) 25.1 (51) 0.1 (40) 29. Indiana (3-2) 11.9 34.8 (29) 23.1 (40) 0.2 (29) 30. Wash. St. (3-2) 11.3 42.5 (6) 31.5 (84) 0.3 (21) 31. Miami (2-2) 11.3 29.1 (65) 17.7 (21) -0.1 (86) 32. Arizona St. (4-1) 10.6 25.0 (89) 14.6 (10) 0.3 (26) 33. Minnesota (4-0) 10.4 39.2 (14) 28.5 (67) -0.2 (96) 34. S. Carolina (2-3) 9.6 28.2 (71) 18.9 (29) 0.4 (14) 35. Kansas St. (3-1) 9.0 29.6 (58) 20.8 (34) 0.2 (38) 36. Arizona (3-1) 8.5 40.5 (10) 31.8 (85) -0.2 (95) 37. SMU (5-0) 8.3 35.7 (27) 27.1 (62) -0.3 (113) 38. Cincinnati (3-1) 8.1 27.3 (76) 19.2 (30) 0.0 (63) 39. Nebraska (3-2) 7.9 34.0 (33) 25.6 (53) -0.5 (124) 40. Texas Tech (2-2) 7.9 29.8 (55) 22.4 (36) 0.4 (8) 41. Utah St. (3-1) 6.7 27.4 (75) 20.7 (33) 0.0 (61) 42. Virginia (4-1) 6.4 24.6 (90) 18.3 (27) 0.1 (53) 43. App. St. (4-0) 5.9 40.4 (11) 34.7 (101) 0.2 (32) 44. Duke (3-1) 5.9 30.1 (53) 24.4 (47) 0.2 (31) 45. Temple (3-1) 5.6 20.9 (105) 14.8 (13) -0.4 (119) 46. Maryland (2-2) 5.4 29.5 (60) 23.6 (43) -0.5 (125) 47. Florida St. (3-2) 5.2 35.8 (26) 30.5 (78) -0.1 (78) 48. Colorado (3-1) 5.0 41.5 (7) 37.0 (113) 0.5 (5) 49. California (4-1) 4.9 22.9 (98) 18.0 (25) 0.0 (64) 50. Boise St. (4-0) 4.7 29.1 (63) 24.4 (48) 0.0 (65) 51. Tulane (3-1) 4.5 30.9 (51) 26.8 (60) 0.3 (18) 52. Air Force (3-1) 4.3 32.9 (40) 28.8 (68) 0.2 (30) 53. Wake Forest (5-0) 4.2 33.1 (39) 29.0 (70) 0.0 (54) 54. Tennessee (1-3) 3.3 25.8 (84) 22.8 (39) 0.2 (37) 55. NC St. (3-2) 2.8 26.5 (79) 23.8 (44) 0.1 (47) 56. Illinois (2-2) 2.5 33.9 (34) 32.1 (87) 0.6 (2) 57. Army (3-1) 2.0 26.4 (82) 24.6 (50) 0.2 (35) 58. Ole Miss (2-3) 2.0 26.5 (80) 24.1 (45) -0.4 (121) 59. Pittsburgh (3-2) 1.5 18.5 (113) 16.7 (19) -0.2 (106) 60. N. Carolina (2-3) 1.3 32.1 (43) 30.7 (80) -0.1 (88) 61. Kentucky (2-3) 1.3 29.0 (66) 27.7 (64) 0.0 (56) 62. UL-Lafayette (4-1) 1.1 34.4 (31) 33.3 (91) 0.0 (60) 63. Purdue (1-3) 1.1 36.8 (20) 35.8 (105) 0.1 (48) 64. W. Virginia (3-1) 1.0 26.8 (77) 25.6 (55) -0.2 (101) 65. Syracuse (3-2) 0.9 28.2 (72) 27.8 (65) 0.5 (3) 66. UCLA (1-4) 0.9 31.8 (47) 30.8 (82) -0.1 (91) 67. Navy (2-1) 0.5 29.9 (54) 29.6 (73) 0.3 (24) 68. Houston (2-3) 0.4 36.3 (23) 36.0 (108) 0.1 (45) 69. Northwestern (1-3) 0.3 15.2 (123) 14.8 (11) -0.1 (76) 70. Louisville (2-2) 0.3 29.2 (61) 29.1 (71) 0.2 (34) 71. Oregon St. (1-3) 0.0 36.6 (21) 36.3 (112) -0.3 (107) 72. Va. Tech (2-2) -0.3 25.2 (88) 25.5 (52) 0.0 (70) 73. Stanford (2-3) -0.8 26.6 (78) 27.3 (63) -0.1 (87) 74. Boston Coll. (3-2) -0.9 32.1 (44) 32.7 (89) -0.3 (111) 75. Fresno St. (2-2) -1.1 25.2 (87) 26.3 (57) 0.0 (73) 76. Tulsa (2-2) -1.2 23.4 (96) 24.5 (49) -0.1 (89) 77. San Diego St. (3-1) -1.4 14.4 (124) 16.1 (15) 0.3 (23) 78. BYU (2-3) -1.5 24.1 (93) 25.6 (54) 0.0 (67) 79. N. Texas (2-3) -1.8 28.4 (69) 30.5 (79) 0.4 (9) 80. FAU (3-2) -1.9 29.1 (64) 30.8 (81) -0.2 (105) 81. Arkansas St. (3-2) -2.0 31.9 (46) 33.9 (94) 0.0 (57) 82. Arkansas (2-3) -2.5 24.0 (94) 26.5 (59) 0.1 (51) 83. Hawaii (4-1) -2.9 33.5 (36) 36.0 (109) -0.4 (120) 84. Kansas (2-3) -3.4 25.3 (85) 28.5 (66) -0.2 (98) 85. Troy (2-2) -3.8 34.3 (32) 38.1 (116) 0.0 (62) 86. Wyoming (4-1) -4.3 22.2 (99) 26.5 (58) 0.0 (72) 87. Vanderbilt (1-3) -4.8 32.5 (41) 37.6 (114) 0.3 (22) 88. WMU (3-2) -5.0 31.0 (50) 35.9 (106) -0.1 (85) 89. So. Miss (3-2) -5.2 28.3 (70) 33.2 (90) -0.3 (115) 90. Marshall (2-2) -5.6 28.5 (67) 34.4 (96) 0.3 (20) 91. Liberty (3-2) -6.8 24.3 (92) 30.9 (83) -0.2 (99) 92. Ga. Tech (1-3) -7.3 16.3 (120) 23.3 (41) -0.3 (108) 93. UAB (3-1) -7.8 15.2 (122) 22.8 (38) -0.3 (109) 94. USF (1-3) -8.1 18.0 (115) 25.8 (56) -0.3 (116) 95. Toledo (3-1) -8.4 30.7 (52) 39.5 (119) 0.4 (10) 96. La. Tech (4-1) -8.7 25.2 (86) 33.8 (92) -0.1 (92) 97. Rutgers (1-3) -8.9 20.5 (107) 29.6 (74) 0.2 (27) 98. Ohio (1-3) -9.9 28.4 (68) 38.5 (117) 0.2 (28) 99. WKU (2-2) -10.6 18.1 (114) 28.8 (69) 0.1 (49) 100. Coastal Caro. (3-2) -10.6 24.4 (91) 34.5 (98) -0.5 (126) 101. ECU (3-2) -10.9 19.2 (111) 30.0 (77) -0.1 (81) 102. Colorado St. (1-4) -10.9 29.6 (59) 40.4 (123) -0.1 (75) 103. Texas St. (2-3) -11.3 19.1 (112) 30.0 (76) -0.3 (117) 104. Ball St. (1-3) -11.3 23.5 (95) 34.4 (97) -0.3 (114) 105. FIU (1-3) -11.5 21.2 (103) 32.4 (88) -0.3 (112) 106. EMU (3-1) -11.9 27.7 (74) 39.7 (120) 0.1 (42) 107. UL-Monroe (2-2) -12.0 28.0 (73) 39.7 (121) -0.2 (104) 108. Ga. Southern (1-3) -12.1 19.7 (110) 31.9 (86) 0.1 (50) 109. Charlotte (2-3) -12.5 29.7 (56) 42.3 (126) 0.0 (59) 110. Buffalo (2-3) -12.7 17.6 (116) 29.8 (75) -0.4 (123) 111. Nevada (3-2) -13.2 20.6 (106) 33.9 (93) 0.1 (52) 112. San Jose St. (2-2) -13.5 21.9 (101) 35.2 (104) -0.2 (103) 113. Miami-OH (2-3) -14.6 19.9 (109) 34.5 (99) 0.1 (44) 114. NIU (1-3) -15.2 20.9 (104) 36.1 (110) -0.1 (77) 115. MTSU (1-3) -15.3 26.5 (81) 42.0 (125) 0.2 (33) 116. Kent St. (2-2) -16.0 21.9 (100) 38.0 (115) 0.1 (41) 117. UNLV (1-3) -16.4 20.0 (108) 36.2 (111) -0.2 (100) 118. Georgia St. (2-2) -17.4 26.1 (83) 43.6 (127) 0.0 (58) 119. ODU (1-3) -17.7 11.9 (129) 29.5 (72) 0.0 (74) 120. CMU (2-3) -19.1 15.9 (121) 34.9 (102) -0.1 (80) 121. New Mexico (2-2) -20.8 23.1 (97) 44.2 (128) 0.4 (15) 122. S. Alabama (1-4) -22.3 13.8 (125) 35.9 (107) -0.1 (82) 123. UConn (1-3) -22.3 12.4 (128) 34.6 (100) -0.2 (94) 124. Rice (0-5) -22.4 13.0 (126) 35.1 (103) -0.2 (102) 125. NMSU (0-5) -22.8 17.3 (117) 40.2 (122) 0.1 (46) 126. UTSA (1-3) -24.6 16.7 (118) 40.6 (124) -0.6 (130) 127. Akron (0-5) -25.7 8.9 (130) 34.1 (95) -0.6 (128) 128. BGSU (1-3) -26.8 12.9 (127) 39.1 (118) -0.6 (129) 129. UMass (1-4) -27.5 21.6 (102) 49.0 (130) 0.0 (71) 130. UTEP (1-3) -28.9 16.5 (119) 45.3 (129) -0.1 (79)