It has been a tough week for Michael watchers, but aren't they all? In the early days came word from an NBA coach that Michael Jordan's return to the league was utterly inevitable, which of course means that there is no way Jordan can possibly be coming back, case closed, end of discussion. (First law of summer: NBA coaches are never, ever right about anything they say during the offseason. It's right there in the manual.)

But now comes the opinion of Jordan's personal trainer that Mike's rib injury has just set him too far back in his training regimen for Jordan to be in competitive trim in time for the upcoming season. This, of course, means that Jordan is a lead-pipe cinch to be lacing them up for the Washington Wizards the night before Halloween.

And up next on the Jordan Dart-Board Toss and Weather Balloon Extravaganza: What does Headline News's Andrea Thompson think about Jordan's chances? We'll have our usual panel of experts -- Vinnie the Vendor, Two-Tone Mack and Charles Barkley -- on hand to read tea leaves and draw straws.

We all know the book on Jordan: Whatever you believe he is or isn't capable of at any given moment, he will find a way to turn your preposterous theory inside out. This time around, he stands as a 38-year-old league executive with some door-dings on his midsection trying to come back after a couple of years away and lead a genuinely rotten team to a higher plane, and the sheer improbability of all that would lead the veteran Mike watcher to conclude the obvious: The Wizards will win it all next season.

But then along comes Jeff Van Gundy, and we have to think twice. The Knicks' Van Gundy is the chap who was quoted in USA Today on Monday as saying that it's a sure thing Jordan is coming back -- I believe the word "definite" was tossed in there somewhere around the first paragraph -- and if that doesn't throw you off your feed, nothing will.

Van Gundy's approach is remarkably simple: When in doubt, ask David Stern. A quick glance at the schedule, in fact, reveals that Stern's office has placed the Wizards in Madison Square Garden on Oct. 30 for a season-opening game against Van Gundy's Knicks, and for one coach, at least, that seals it.

"You don't schedule the Wizards at New York on opening night by the computer," Van Gundy said. Frankly, this underestimates Stern's laptop connection speed, but we'll deal with that separately. The point, to Van Gundy, is that Jordan is already back -- and, to take it a step further, Van Gundy is fairly certain that Jordan's return alone is enough to lift the Wizards from 19 wins last season into a playoff berth in the coming one.

You see what I mean about Jordan and expectation? It may have marked a little touch of gamesmanship by Van Gundy to go ahead and build playoff pressure around Jordan's return, but most people secretly agree with that assessment anyway -- they would expect nothing less than to see Jordan back in the playoffs, doing the things he normally does. Those who've seen Jordan play this summer attest that, even in a diminished state, he's generally the best player on the floor for those pick-up games of his, and, shoot, doesn't that mean the postseason is the next stop on the Wish-o-Meter?

Tim Grover isn't so sure. Grover, Jordan's personal trainer for more than a decade and the man who readied him for his last comeback, told the Chicago Sun-Times that he felt very uncertain -- come to think of it, the word "no" cropped up there somewhere pretty early on in the conversation -- about Jordan getting back this time.

Grover's explanation, of course, is so straightforward that nobody wants to take it seriously. Michael Jordan cracked his ribs. The injury put him weeks behind his own training schedule for attempting a comeback. This late in the summer, Grover says, it just isn't realistic to think that Jordan can make up all that lost conditioning time simply by trying harder, longer, in the days he has left before he needs to make a decision in September about the upcoming season.

You can tell, though, that Grover has been around this scene for awhile, because he is quick to add that nothing Jordan does would necessarily surprise him. Jordan's injury was supposed to keep him out from six to eight weeks, but he began playing hoops again a month later. Jordan is 38, which in the NBA qualifies him as an honorary codger, and yet Grover knows that a 38-year-old Jordan isn't remotely like a 38-year-old anybody else.

And Grover probably knows the obvious, which is that whatever we're feeling on the Mike Watch this week, it'll change in a few days. Jordan plays in a scrimmage next week against select NBA peers. Can't wait wait for the postgame commentary fallout: It'll get us through until something else comes along.

Mark Kreidler of the Sacramento Bee is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.