Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We've got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We've got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We've got you there, too. Here's everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend. Odds by ESPN BET.
Stephania Bell's injury update
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins: The speedy back has missed the last four games with a knee injury that landed him on injured reserve, but he benefited from an additional week of recovery with the Week 10 bye. Coach Mike McDaniels commented this week about it being a "sprain-type of injury." McDaniels went on to say they could have returned Achane sooner in a brace if they really had to minimize his time on the field. "We didn't really envision him being one that would really flourish with a brace, so we took the time to make sure that we can get structurally completely strong." Given Achane's agility and quickness, his need to cut sharply and accelerate, this will prove to be the wiser move for both Achane's ability to perform at a high level upon return and, hopefully, stay healthy. McDaniel said they will take it day by day as Achane returns to practice, but he said on Monday that Achane was "untackleable." He said he feels good about where they are with him. If he continues down this path through the rest of the week, it certainly sounds as if Achane will take the field Sunday.
Get all the latest injury news here.
Matt Bowen's matchups to exploit
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. the Arizona Cardinals' zone coverages: Stroud holds a QBR of 75.2, with 25 explosive play throws (completions of 20 or more yards), versus zone coverage this season. He'll see a mix of split-safety zone and Cover 3 this Sunday against the Cardinals. We should expect Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to set up Stroud with concepts that create open zone voids at the second and third level of the field.
New York Jets RB Breece Hall vs. the Buffalo Bills' run defense: Hall has seen 12 or more carries in five straight games, and he gets a matchup versus a Bills defense allowing an average of 4.6 yards per rush. Lean on outside zone run schemes here with Hall, who rushed for 127 yards against Buffalo back in Week 1.
For more breakdowns, check out Matt Bowen's Film Room.
Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge advice
Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants): The Commanders were sellers at the trade deadline, but this is still a 4-6 club in the wild-card race in the NFC, so they have plenty of incentive to beat the lowly Giants at home this week. Washington has a 74% win probability, which is easily its highest the rest of the season. It's also the sixth highest in the league this week, but we've already utilized the Dallas Cowboys (88%), Buffalo Bills (83%) and Miami Dolphins (81%), and we will have better opportunities to use the San Francisco 49ers (77%) and perhaps the Houston Texans (75%). Washington should get the job done easily against undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito and the struggling Giants.
Al Zeidenfeld's DFS plays
Kyler Murray ($6,100) made his return to the field last week and his double stacks profile to be one of the best value tournament plays in combination this week with so many of his pass-catchers carrying super-low price tags. Marquise Brown ($5,300), Rondale Moore ($3,300) and Trey McBride ($4,400) offer avenues and combinations to correlate through and still have plenty of money to build a secondary stack around one of the premium wide receivers with high team totals, such as Tyreek Hill ($9,300) or Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800). Should be a very fun slate for tournament lineup builds.
More DFS plays here.
Seth Walder's biggest edges from ESPN Analytics
Giants NT Dexter Lawrence II over 3.5 tackles + assists (-122): My model forecasts 4.4 tackles + assists for Lawrence, and a large part of that is the expected game flow in this game. The Giants are 9.5-point underdogs against the Commanders, and that means Washington -- typically a very pass-heavy team -- will probably be more run-heavy than usual. That plays into Lawrence's over.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love over 19.5 completions (-114): It feels dangerous to take a completions over with the worst QB in the league in completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation from NFL Next Gen Stats. But Love has been better in recent weeks in those categories, and the Packers are more likely to be behind -- and thus needing to pass -- as an underdog.
David Purdum's Action Report
The line on the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns game dropped 3 points this week on the news that Cleveland QB DeShaun Watson would undergo shoulder surgery and miss the remainder of the season. Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is expected to start for the Browns. Cleveland had been a 4-point favorite, before the Watson news. The line was sitting at Cleveland -1 as of Thursday. The total on the game also dropped significantly and was down to a consensus 33 as of Thursday, the second-lowest total of any game over the last decade, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
Games that had attracted the most-lopsided action by money wagered as of Thursday at DraftKings: Raiders at Dolphins (-13.5) -- 84% of money wagered on Miami; Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers -- 78% of money wagered on Dallas; Buccaneers at 49ers (-12) -- 75% of money wagered on San Francisco.
John Murray, executive director at the SuperBook, told ESPN that he had seen action from sharp bettors this week on the Dolphins, Steelers and Packers.
Money has started to pile up on the Texans to win the AFC. "They are now our second-biggest liability to win the AFC," Tom Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, said. "[They're] down to 28-1."
Anita Marks' NFL confidence pool picks
Detroit Lions OVER 28.5 total points: Detroit's offense is averaging 30 points per game over the last four weeks. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a great 1-2 punch in the ground game, and Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown should take advantage of a Bears defense allowing the second-most passing TDs.
Steelers (+1) at Browns: How are the Steelers NOT favored here!?! They will face a rookie QB in Thompson-Robinson, who is making his second career start. Pittsburgh is 25-4 straight up against rookie QBs under Mike Tomlin, and the Steelers are 5-0 SU and against the spread vs. the Browns at home in the regular season the last five seasons. T.J. Watt will feast!
Tyler Fulghum's Pigskin Pick'em plays
This is why we love the NFL. The league is being turned on its head in the critical month of November. The Minnesota Vikings can't stop winning, even without Kirk Cousins. What a story Josh Dobbs has become this year. And Thursday night's matchup with the Baltimore Ravens seems like a must-win for the Cincinnati Bengals to get their playoff chances off life support. Oh, hello San Francisco. That bye seemed to serve you well. The 49ers are back BACK after the three-game losing streak. Love this game. Love this week. Good luck in Week 11 of Pigskin Pick'em!