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2023 NFL betting: Loza's and Dopp's Week 12 props that pop

Khalil Shakir could be a sleeper pick for receiving props facing an Eagles pass defense that has struggled this season. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

It's Thanksgiving Week, and we've all got a lot to be thankful for. Things like football, illegally small puppers, Dan Campbell, mashed potatoes and gravy, and Liz Loza. Plus, we had three NFL games Thursday, got another game Friday and will have a bunch more on Sunday and Monday. If that's not something to be thankful for, I don't know what is!

But seriously, Liz and I want to say thank you for reading this column every week. We're so grateful you'd take time out of your day to read our thoughts, opinions and charming, witty banter (Liz's, not mine) every week. Thank you. It's amazing, and we're incredibly grateful for the love. Now let's try to show you a little love back with a few winners for Week 12 in another edition of Props That Pop!


RB props

Ty Chandler OVER 33.5 rushing yards (vs. Bears)

Chandler -- who was expected to lead the Minnesota Vikings' backfield -- headlined fantasy sleeper articles heading into Week 11. Alexander Mattison, however, surprised the fantasy community by clearing the concussion protocol and suiting up last Sunday. Yet it was Chandler who emerged as the more efficient rusher (7.3 YPC), finishing with just 8 fewer yards on eight fewer carries.

We've watched Mattison struggle to find a rhythm all season (3.7 YPC). Chandler has the fresher legs and is the more explosive option. I expect him to rip off a handful of long runs against a Chicago Bears defense that allowed an average of 5.2 yards per carry to the Detroit Lions backfield last Sunday. -- Liz Loza

WR props

Rashid Shaheed OVER 37.5 receiving yards. (vs. Falcons)

A.T. Perry is getting a lot of deserving sleeper buzz with Michael Thomas (knee) out against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. But don't forget about Shaheed. The second-year deep threat is coming off of a season-high eight looks in Week 11 (the bulk of which he drew after Thomas exited the game). Averaging 16.9 yards per reception (WR5) and facing a Falcons secondary that has been generous to the slot (where Shaheed aligns 41% of the time), Shaheed figures to clear this line by at least 10 yards. -- Loza

Tank Dell OVER 4.5 receptions. (vs. Jaguars)

Dell and this Houston Texans offense have been on fire recently. C.J. Stroud has the Texans looking like a totally different team, and he is finding his wide receivers all over the field. But we're focusing on the promising young rookie. Dell is WR3 in targets per game, fourth in receiving yards per game and sixth in receptions per game since Week 9 (with 6.7 per game over the past three). That's a pretty good stretch of football, and I'm not expecting it to slow down this week. The Texans draw the Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup that ESPN BET has tied for the highest total of the week. With all the points expected to be scored in this one, and Tank's involvement in this offense, I'm all-in on taking the over on 4.5 receptions. -- Daniel Dopp

Khalil Shakir OVER 30.5 receiving yards. (vs. Eagles)

This one is my favorite prop of the week. The Philadelphia Eagles give up a lot of yards through the air, that's something we've been talking about all season on the Fantasy Focus podcast. The Eagles struggle to defend the slot, where they allow more yards per game (110.5) than any other team in the NFL this season.

Enter Shakir, who since Week 8 has games of 92, 57, 24 and 115 yards. He's one explosive play waiting to happen, and even though he doesn't have mega volume in this offense, he gets enough to attack the Eagles where they are weak. That's why I'm taking the over on 30.5 receiving yards. -- Dopp

TE props

Cade Otton OVER 3.5 receptions. (vs. Colts)

You know I love a good TE prop ... and Otton has been the gift that keeps on giving, The second-year tight end has drawn six red zone looks over his past three games. He also has managed at least four grabs in four of his past five games. He'll face an Indianapolis Colts defense this Sunday that has drawn the third-most TE looks (86) and allowed the seventh-most catches (58) to the position. Give me the over on 3.5 receptions for Otton. -- Loza

David Njoku OVER 39.5 receiving yards. (vs. Broncos)

In Dorian Thompson-Robinson's first prepared start, he peppered Njoku to the tune of 15 targets. In fact, it's not just DTR who is finding him in this Browns offense. Since Week 7, Njoku has the second-most targets among tight ends. And most importantly, Njoku is averaging 54.5 yards per game. Denver has allowed seven tight ends to hit this line, and Njoku himself has hit this mark in four of the past five games. With heavy volume going to Njoku with Thompson-Robinson under center, his usual usage within this offense and a defense with a recent history of letting tight ends beat it, there are plenty of reasons Njoku should hit this mark. I'm taking the over on 39.5 receiving yards. -- Dopp