Greatest. (Hypothetical) Series. Ever.
Start the countdown to the Western Conference finals, when we (fingers crossed!) get to watch two historically great squads square off -- maybe even seven times in a row (toes crossed!).
BPI prediction
We employed ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) to pick the winner of a Spurs-Warriors series. BPI is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team, and takes into account game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest, game location and preseason expectations. Who would prevail in a playoff showdown? BPI gives San Antonio the edge, but not by much.
49%
51%
SPURS
ESPN'S NBA BASKETBALL POWER INDEX PREDICTION
WARRIORS
Slow and steady downs the Dubs
Golden State is the best team in the NBA when playing fast (100 possessions per game or more) and is tops by a wide margin at a normal pace of play (95-100). But the Spurs are no slouches, and they're significantly better when the game grinds to a low gear. If the Spurs slow the pace (as they did in a March 19 win), they could gain the edge.
Warriors
Spurs
+20
+18.8
+13.5
+15
+14.0
+12.8
+11.6
+10.3
+10
+9.3
+5
+2.9
0
(t-10th)
(2nd)
(1st)
(1st)
(1st)
(2nd)
(1st)
(2nd)
OVERALL
<95 POSS.
95-100 POSS.
>100 POSS.
Four Factors vs. First Five
The Spurs shine in analytics pioneer Dean Oliver's four key defensive metrics, while the Warriors have four of the league's 15 most efficient lineups. The numbers add up: The Spurs' 96.1 DRtg is No. 1, as is the Warriors' 112.5 ORtg via NBA.com's team stats.
Warriors
Spurs
1
1
3
3
2
8
10
16
17
20
20
30
EFFECTIVE FG%
TO%
D-REB
FT/FGA
47.5
VS.
48
14.1
VS.
12.7
79.3%
VS.
76.1%
0.181
VS.
0.210
Defense wins championships ... unless offense does
In the 10 postseason matchups of the NBA's best offense vs. best defense since 1970-71 (four of which came in the conference finals), the sharpest shooters have won seven times. One of three defenses to buck the trend? The 2004-05 Spurs.
Winner
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