ESPN

WHERE DO QBS COME FROM?

BY ESPN NFL NATION REPORTERS

© Mapbox © OpenStreetMap

Louisiana is famous for its Cajun food, jazz music, Mardi Gras -- and quarterbacks.

A total of 721 quarterbacks have debuted and played at least one game in the NFL during the Super Bowl era (since 1966), and the Bayou State outperformed expectations the most in a study by ESPN and Pro Football Reference.

California is more than just Tom Brady, and the great state of Texas hasn't been so great when it comes to producing NFL QBs, according to our formula, which counts a player's home state as the one in which he finished his high school career.

You'll find there's a QB1 state -- the one with the highest percentage of starts per game played -- and one that has produced the most backups. Can you name the seven states that have not produced an NFL quarterback? (You can find them here.)

Which ZIP code has produced the most NFL quarterbacks? Which state has the highest average draft position for quarterbacks? And where does the 2021 NFL draft class of quarterbacks come from?

It's all here:

Louisiana: The best QB state

Data was culled from Pro Football Reference to figure out which states have over- or underperformed based on the expected number of NFL quarterbacks produced, decided by population size and the number of Division I programs in a state. The data was analyzed through the lenses of number of quarterbacks, Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Super Bowl wins and NFL approximate value (AV). The numbers were run through a principle component analysis -- boiling the information down to the most important data points -- to create the overall rankings. Louisiana, with 25 NFL QBs, including Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, is No. 1. Louisiana QBs have nine Super Bowl wins in 14 starts.

Highest QB rating vs. expectation

  • 1 Louisiana
    450.5
  • 2 New York
    315.4
  • 3 Indiana
    172.2
  • 4 California
    153.8
  • 5 Mississippi
    109.9
  • 6 Illinois
    98.7
  • 7 Missouri
    89.0
  • 8 Kansas
    88.4
  • 9 Virginia
    79.0
  • 10 Michigan
    78.2

Texas: The worst QB state

Texas ranks last in ESPN's QB formula because of the expectations given the state's resources. The second-most populous state, Texas also leads the country in a key formula component -- Division I football programs -- with 21, seven more than any other state. Texas surprisingly has no quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame (based on our criteria for players since 1966), and the collective approximate value of the state's QBs is watered down because many are not key contributors (its 62% start average ranked 15th among states with at least 500 games played). Yet Texas leads the U.S. in Super Bowl wins above expectation. And in 2018 and 2019, one out of four quarterbacks who started Week 1 hailed from the Lone Star State.

Lowest QB rating vs. expectation

  • 1 Texas
    -343.9
  • 2 Ohio
    -183.2
  • 3 Colorado
    -140.4
  • 4 Arizona
    -127.8
  • 5 Florida
    -114.5
  • 6 Tennessee
    -113.3
  • 7 Arkansas
    -100.5
  • 8 Maryland
    -86.5
  • 9 Oregon
    -77.1
  • 10 South Dakota
    -64.6

Washington: The draft pick state

Among states that have produced at least 15 NFL quarterbacks, Washington has the highest average draft position at 71.3 for its 16 QBs selected in the NFL draft (not counting the supplemental draft). Washington is 10th overall in our rankings thanks in large part to Drew Bledsoe, Chris Chandler, Mark Rypien and Jon Kitna, whose careers have the highest approximate values among the state's 22 QBs. Bledsoe, the No. 1 overall pick in 1993, was one of four first-round picks from Washington and one of 12 taken within the first 100 selections. Twelve of the 22 Washington QBs came from the greater Seattle area.

Highest average draft position

  • 1 Washington
    71.4
  • 2 North Carolina
    76.6
  • 3 Alabama
    86.6
  • 4 Mississippi
    88.1
  • 5 Oregon
    88.5
  • 6 Louisiana
    94.5
  • 7 Indiana
    105.8
  • 8 New Jersey
    107.4
  • 9 Florida
    108.4
  • 10 Illinois
    110.6
Minimum 10 QBs

Mississippi: The QB1 state

Before he expanded to Louisiana and founded his own personal QB franchise, Archie Manning started another unique trend of QB1s from his home state of Mississippi. Although the Magnolia State has boasted just 11 NFL quarterbacks during the Super Bowl era (tied for 12th among all states), almost all of them were QB1s. Led by Manning and league MVPs Brett Favre and Steve McNair, they made 732 starts in 802 games played (91.3%). That's the highest start percentage of any state with at least 400 games played. The state that produced dynamic personalities such as Favre and Gardner Minshew found a way to make an impression.

Highest percentage of games as starter

  • 1 Mississippi
    91.3
  • 2 Louisiana
    83
  • 3 Indiana
    81.9
  • 4 New York
    75.4
  • 5 Kansas
    74.4
  • 6 Oregon
    73.1
  • 7 Wisconsin
    73
  • 8 New Jersey
    72.8
  • 9 California
    72
  • 10 Virginia
    71.7
Minimum 400 games

Arizona: The clipboard state

There were at least eight Power 5 starting quarterbacks in college football last season from Arizona, but just two Arizonans started in the NFL last season (Kyle Allen and Ryan Fitzpatrick). That's reflective of Arizona's NFL history, which includes longtime backup Mike Pagel. According to Pro Football Reference, Arizona has produced 19 NFL quarterbacks, eighth most in the country, but it has the lowest percentage of starts (55%) among states with at least 400 games played. Without Fitzpatrick's 146 starts, the canyon between Arizona and runner-up Ohio, at 57.6% for its 34 QBs, would be even wider.

Lowest percentage of games as starter

  • 1 Arizona
    55
  • 2 Ohio
    57.6
  • 3 Michigan
    60.3
  • 4 North Carolina
    60.8
  • 5 Pennsylvania
    61.6
  • 6 Texas
    62
  • 7 Washington
    62.6
  • 8 Georgia
    62.7
  • 9 Oklahoma
    67.3
  • 10 Florida
    67.4
Minimum 400 games

California: The QB factory

It only seems as though Tom Brady has been playing long enough to have hung out with the Lizard King himself, and that Jim Morrison was talking about Brady and California QBs when he crooned, "The West is the best, get here and we'll do the rest." While Brady (and his seven rings) is the headliner, the Golden State's dominance is more than just the Golden Boy, a sixth-round pick who graduated from Serra High School in 1995. California, with 141 quarterbacks, is tops in the union with 14 Super Bowl wins in 25 starts, three Hall of Famers, seven No. 1 overall picks and 6,532 TD passes.

Most NFL QBs in Super Bowl era

  • 1 California
    141
  • 2 Texas
    79
  • 3 Pennsylvania
    54
  • 4 Florida
    39
  • 5 Ohio
    34
  • 6 Louisiana
    25
  • 7 Illinois
    23
  • 8 Washington
    22
  • 9 Arizona
    19
  • 10 Alabama
    18

QBs by decade

California has been strong in its quarterback production in every decade, leading the way in the 1970s, '80s and '90s (based on the final year of high school for each QB). But Texas surpassed the Golden State in the 2000s with 25 quarterbacks (to California's 22), and they are tied with eight in the 2010s. The most prolific quarterback state of the 2010s is Florida with nine, including Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater. With Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, Georgia will get a boost after the 2021 draft, climbing into the top five for the 2010s with six NFL quarterbacks.

QBs by ZIP code

Westlake (Austin, Texas) High and Isidore Newman (New Orleans) School represent the only two ZIP codes in the country to produce multiple Super Bowl-winning starting quarterbacks. Newman had Peyton and Eli Manning, and Westlake's Drew Brees and Nick Foles also led world champions. St. Ignatius (Ohio) is in the only ZIP code with four NFL quarterbacks, though the most well-known name from that group is Luck -- and it's not the Luck you think it is. Oliver Luck hailed from St. Ignatius, but the 44113 doesn't get credit for his son Andrew, who went to high school in Texas. Eleven ZIP codes have produced three NFL QBs, and 60 can boast two.

Ultimate QB factory: Fork Union

Vinny Testaverde. Jim Druckenmiller. Cardale Jones. Don Majkowski. Will Furrer. Any school would be proud if their NFL alumni base started and ended with those names -- but at Fork Union Military Academy in Virginia, that's just five of the quarterbacks who attended the boarding school before playing in the NFL. According to its website, FUMA has produced more than 100 future NFL players, including 12 first-round picks such as Eddie George, Anthony Castonzo and Plaxico Burress.

Who's next: 2021 draft class

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence went 52-2 as a starter at Cartersville High, winning two state titles. Ohio State's Justin Fields was a five-star recruit at Harrison High. BYU's Zach Wilson will be just the sixth Utah QB to play in the NFL, yet somehow he was runner-up in the state's Mr. Football award. North Dakota State's Trey Lance could be the first Minnesota QB selected in the first round. And Jacksonville, Florida, native Mac Jones is expected to be the third straight Alabama QB selected in the first round, with none of the three hailing from Alabama.

About 20 miles on I-75 separate the Georgia high school homes of two of the draft's top QB prospects. Trevor Lawrence, of Cartersville High, and Justin Fields, of Harrison High, became the top two recruits in the nation in 2018. With both expected to be top picks in the draft, Georgia will soon have 19 NFL quarterbacks. And of those, 11 come from high schools located within 30 miles of Atlanta.

The United States of quarterbacks will add more members to the club April 29-May 1 with the NFL draft (on ESPN/ESPN App) and maybe someday make some QB-starved states proud (we're looking at you, Utah and Minnesota). Check out the full list of 721 quarterbacks divided by state here.

Photos by Getty Images
Illustrations by Josue Evilla
Written by Rob Demovsky, Michael Rothstein, Ben Baby, Brady Henderson, Mike Triplett, Josh Weinfuss, Paul Gutierrez, Nick Wagoner, Marcel Louis-Jacques, Jeff Legwold and John Roberts

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