Calvin “Megatron” Johnson set the single-season receiving yards record of 1,964 yards in 2012.
No one really came close to touching that mark until 2021, when Cooper Kupp finished the season 18 yards shy. Last season, Justin Jefferson became only the sixth player with more than 1,800 yards in a season.
With so many big-play pass-catchers currently in the NFL, it feels as if this could be the season we see the record broken. ESPN Analytics took to the data to narrow down who could break it.
Who can break Megatron’s record?
THE FIELD
OF 96
Three pass-catchers on each of the 32 NFL depth charts are eligible.
The "top three" pass-catchers for each team were decided largely on receiving yardage totals from 2022, though subjective calls were made to reflect impact over pure totals. No one drafted in 2023 was considered. The player list and all data used to make cuts are as of Aug. 15.
EXTENDED PLAYING TIME
Contenders must have at least one 15-game season in the past three years.
To have a chance at 1,965 yards, contenders must demonstrate an ability to stay on the field for close to a full season. Health can become that barrier for older players, while many first- and second-year players have fewer opportunities to fulfill the requirement.
Baltimore Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. is maybe the most notable cut here. He sat out the entire 2022 season to rehab a torn ACL and hasn't had a 15-game season since 2019. Beckham was once among the NFL's greatest wideouts, but at this stage of his career, the question is whether he can reach 1,000 yards, not 2,000.
1,000-YARD SEASON
If a receiver hasn’t reached 1,000 since 2020, it’s unlikely he gets there this season.
Of the 40 players cut, only seven have ever had a 1,000-plus-yard season. Maybe not surprisingly, a quarter of the names dropped here are tight ends, who tend to rack up far fewer yards than the top wide receivers.
T.J. Hockenson (6), top, and George Kittle (11) combined for 17 touchdowns last season and were targeted on 20% and 24% of routes, respectively. Those are big percentages for tight ends (both top 10 last year), but neither would crack the top 20 among WRs.
YARDS VS. MAN DEFENSE
Those who averaged 2.5 yards or more per route against man coverage once since 2020 move on.
Yards per route run is probably the best box score metric to measure receivers. Simply analyzing total yards can overly reward receivers who play more, and a per-target view ignores that targets are earned. Why against man coverage? It's generally believed that one-on-one performance is more indicative of overall skill level.
DeVonta Smith is one of three young, big-time targets who just missed this cut but are capable of moving up in 2023. The third-year WR averaged 2.22 yards per route run vs. man last season, but he's still the No. 2 wideout for the Philadelphia Eagles behind A.J. Brown.
Amon-Ra St. Brown barely missed out at 2.49 Y/RR vs. man. He is the lead wideout on a high-powered Detroit Lions offense, but could he really break the record while catching passes just 5.4 yards downfield on average, as was the case last year?
Miami Dolphins No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle just missed the cut (2.44) but recorded 1,356 receiving yards last season, even with QB Tua Tagovailoa out for five games -- meaning there's probably unrealized upside here. Still, Waddle's average Y/RR vs. man significantly trailed teammate Tyreek Hill's (3.69).
QB CONNECTION
Only receivers whose QBs Mike Clay projects to throw for more than 3,500 yards continue.
A pass-catcher can only be as good as the person throwing him passes. Of the five players cut here, three will be on new teams and working with new quarterbacks in 2023. Two others will link up with QBs who are full-time starters for the first time.
DeAndre Hopkins recently signed with the Tennessee Titans, whose expected starting QB, Ryan Tannehill, is projected at 3,350 yards. Hopkins, 31, also has declined in production the past two seasons. His Overall Score in ESPN Analytics' Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTM) is currently in the mid-60s, down from 70s from 2018 to 2020.
Brandon Aiyuk misses out here because Brock Purdy's projection (2,988 yards) falls short of the threshold, thanks in part to health concerns. Even if Purdy is 100 percent by Week 1, Aiyuk had just a 23% target share last year. That's fine, but it's not going to lead to any record-breaking.
TOP
TRACKERS
WRs with a 70 or better RTM Overall Score since 2020 cleared the final hurdle.
ESPN Analytics uses NFL Next Gen Stats data to quantify receiver performance in three categories: Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score. The three areas are combined into a single Overall Score. All five players cut at this stage had a three-season average rating above 50, but only two had even one season above 70.
Amari Cooper's remarkably consistent Overall Scores of 68, 69 and 67 from 2020 to 2022 fall just outside our threshold. He's never topped 1,200 yards in a season, and last year, his Open Score -- the most predictive attribute of the three RTMs -- was 54.
CeeDee Lamb is the toughest cut here. Aside from falling short on the RTMs the past three seasons, it's all there for Lamb: 2.9 yards per route run vs. man, a 28% target share, a good quarterback and 1,359 receiving yards a year ago.
METCALF SEAHAWKS
DK Metcalf is a good all-around receiver, and he came close to making it through, with a 65 Overall Score since 2020. While 2.5 yards per route run vs. man and 25% target share are good, he lacks the exceptional category likely necessary to break the record.
Mike Williams excels at contested catches, which shows in his 70 Catch Score over the past three seasons. In the most predictive category, Open Score, he's below average with just a 45, dragging down his Overall Score to just 60.
THE FINAL NINE
After five cuts, nine elite receivers remain.
The final nine have shown they can meet the criteria of a potential record-setting pass-catcher, but who has the best chance to be the guy this season? The charts below detail how they stack up at each of our final three cuts -- Y/RR vs. man coverage, Mike Clay's QB projections and RTM Overall Score.
Y/RR vs. man (2020-22)
Over the past three seasons combined, no one has recorded more yards per route run vs. man than A.J. Brown, at 3.43. He ranked third in the Receiver Tracking Metrics' Overall Score (83) in that span, too.
Davante Adams' 4.21 Y/RR vs. man in 2020 is the highest single-season score of any receiver over the past three seasons.
Tyreek Hill had the most yards per route run in a single season over the past three at 3.33. A record-breaker will run roughly 600 routes, so 3.3 is approximately what it will take.
QB PROJECTIONS
Bengals QB Joe Burrow is going to rack up yardage, and his connection with Ja'Marr Chase dates back to college at LSU.
Say what you want about Kirk Cousins, but the man puts up passing yards, and his favorite target, Justin Jefferson, is the beneficiary.
No receiver has gotten closer to Johnson's record than Cooper Kupp did in 2021. He did it with Matthew Stafford, who is projected to throw for over 4,200 yards this season.
RTM Overall Score (2020-22)
Over the past three seasons combined, the highest Overall Score in the Receiver Tracking Metrics is a tie between Jefferson and Stefon Diggs (84 each).
Chris Olave recorded a 77 Overall Score as a rookie. He's the only player drafted in 2022 who cracked the top 50 in every RTM category last season.
It's been awhile since we've seen Calvin Ridley (he was suspended for the 2022 season), but he did post a 81 in 2020.
Maybe not surprisingly, last season's top receiver, Jefferson, has the best odds (+600) to lead the league in regular-season yards again, according to Caesars Sportsbook. The Vikings' superstar already has amassed more receiving yards than any other third-year player and is no doubt a solid pick to break Johnson's single-season record. But Hill, for one, isn't interested in handing Jefferson the crown. "I will break 2,000 yards next year, bro," Hill said on his podcast in June. The data do suggest someone could have a 2,000-yard season, and there are plenty of viable candidates to do it now.
